SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JANUARY 02: Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks warms up before the game against the Detroit Lions at Lumen Field on January 02, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
The NFL playoffs are an exciting time for fans, players, and franchises. The jump in competition means we’ll see legacy-altering performances from some of the top stars. For non-contenders, this time is best spent formulating how to land a premier quarterback in order to reach the Super Bowl next year.
The 2021 offseason was the first where established starters were swapped regardless of contract size and cap implications. Last year may have marked the beginning of an era where the likes of Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff are traded more frequently.
We’ll see the rumors swirling all spring long. Some are rotted from truth, while others are more hopeful than realistic. Like we did last year, we’ll break down all facets of each quarterback potentially on the move coming true.
Here are predictions where the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and more will be playing next season.
Aaron Rodgers
Prediction: Packers
After spending the majority of the 2021 offseason discontent with the Packers, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t seemed nearly as upset with the franchise so far this season. It helps that the Packers clinched the lone NFC bye week and overall No. 1 seed. The franchise also traded for Randall Cobb as Rodgers wished and this could be a sign of a front office willing to listen to the star QB on personnel decisions moving forward.
That might be all it takes for Rodgers to stay in Green Bay long-term. With reports the Packers will keep Davante Adams on the franchise tag for 2022, Rodgers, 38, would need to be convinced going elsewhere guarantees a better chance at a Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine he’d even consider more than two or three teams since the Packers have sustained a high-level of play under Matt LaFleur.
Green Bay does have significant cap limitations in 2022 that will crush hopes of any big acquisitions. Rodgers could name his destination, with Denver, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh standing out as the best rosters that need an upgrade. But that’s up to Rodgers, and a Super Bowl win could further seal his return.
Russell Wilson
Prediction: Broncos
It was hard to watch the Seahawks in 2021 as the franchise continued to stumble over themselves as the defense disappointed and Russell Wilson struggled with a finger injury. We know head coach Pete Carroll will be back in 2022, and the veteran head coach has insisted the franchise is close to contending despite their 7-10 record. However, the franchise needs to make a difficult decision as to whether it’s time to entertain trading quarterback Russell Wilson.
The 33-year-old dual-threat remains effective at taking care of the ball and efficient in a vertical passing offense. His 64.8 percent completion rate, 25 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and 7.8 yards per attempt are all in line with his career norms. But the veteran lacked the same explosiveness we’ve grown accustomed to.
His $37 million cap number is reasonable for a superstar, but factors into a deal. With Denver in particular desperate for an upgrade and Wilson voicing his own displeasure last offseason, now is the chance for Seattle to move Wilson for a maximum return. And Wilson should be highly interested in working with arguably the most talented young set of playmakers in the league.
Denver would immediately jump to the top of NFL contenders going from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to Wilson. The franchise is not only in the midst of a coaching search, but also an ownership change. Those two factors could potentially help or hurt general manager George Paton’s pitch to veteran quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson
Prediction: Panthers
The biggest wild card this offseason is Deshaun Watson. His legal troubles held him back from being traded by now and soon there will be some developments on that front. A deal won’t happen until the NFL provides clarity on whether Watson can play right away in 2022 or has to serve a suspension.
Recent developments will affect teams interested in the Watson trade market. Miami’s 7-2 winning streak and firing of Brian Flores has been in part to reinforce commitment to Tua Tagovailoa. But Cleveland’s and Carolina’s disastrous quarterback seasons have made them more desperate to upgrade.
The level of punishment and timeline of events for Watson will directly impact his market. Washington, Pittsburgh, and even a Russell Wilson-less Seahawks team will monitor Watson’s availability, but they can’t wait in free agency, either. The Texans are holding firm on their price for Watson and he has a no-trade clause as well.
Carolina is down some Day 2 picks in 2022 after trading for Sam Darnold and CJ Henderson, but they’re desperate to improve. Watson, from Georgia and having played at Clemson, may green-light a deal to play with Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Robby Anderson. The Panthers need to nail their offensive coordinator hire, but would undoubtedly become a much more formidable team with the dynamic Watson leading their team.
Matt Ryan
Prediction: Giants
Why the Falcons opted against eating the dead cap associated with moving Matt Ryan last year made little sense then, and looks worse now. While there are more potential suitors this offseason, Ryan’s performance dipped to a level that any interested party must be concerned he’ll be as limited as Ben Roethlisberger had been the last two years. Ryan’s lack of arm strength restricts what an offense can run.
He had been able to compensate for what has never been a great arm earlier in his career. At 36, it’s highly concerning that his touchdown rate dropped to 3.6 percent of his attempts while his yards per attempt is only 7.1. Interested teams must convince themselves their situation will be more advantageous and Ryan will flourish in a different role.
They might be correct considering the Falcons’ lack of consistent running game, defense, and receiving threats. Pittsburgh, New York Giants, Washington, Carolina, and Denver would all improve with Ryan. Despite his massive $48 million cap hit, only $16.25 million would be paid by his new team since bonuses are accelerated and paid by the trading team.
That makes him one of few veterans the Giants in particular can afford. Their new staff should avoid playing Daniel Jones at all costs in order to protect themselves, but the team has a limited pathway to even reach $30 million in cap space. That rules out all impactful starters except Ryan, Baker Mayfield, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
It also makes more sense for the Giants to avoid taking a rookie quarterback in a weak class. A smart strategy for New York might be to trade down from the No. 7 spot, acquire more assets, then use some of their new assets in a move for Ryan. This would limit the sting of giving up a top-10 pick while the Falcons get useful ammunition to chase a replacement in 2022 or 2023.
Kirk Cousins
Prediction: Browns
As painful as it may be for Browns fans who are loyal to the quarterback who helped break the franchise’s playoff drought, the team needs to explore all avenues to improve the position. Mayfield was awful in 2021 as injuries exacerbated poor decision-making, field vision, and accuracy. In total, Mayfield has been average or worse for the majority of his tenure in Cleveland considering 2019, the first half of 2020, and 2021.
The current regime will only tie themselves to Mayfield if they have no options. Even if an impactful veteran isn’t acquired, expect more competition to be added to protect Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski’s future. The fact Case Keenum wasn’t trusted to play over an abysmal Mayfield is a reflection of bad management decisions.
The good news is there are plenty of better candidates on the market. While the team should do everything they can to acquire Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson, both of those players have the cache and, in Watson’s case a no-trade clause, to direct where they’d go. They should want to join Cleveland’s impressive roster, but it’s unknown how they feel at this time.
The natural choice is to acquire Kirk Cousins as the Vikings look to shake up their roster and coaching staff. Cousins is entering the last year of his deal, owed $35 million in salary and carrying a $45 million cap hit. That deal is meant to be restructured, and Cleveland can oblige without killing their flexibility.
Cousins’ familiarity and extreme success with Stefanski makes this an easy fit to see. Cousins isn’t nearly as impactful as his crazy stat lines suggest, but he raises the baseline of an offense to a solid level. Cleveland would be a considerable Super Bowl contender with a borderline top-10 quarterback like Cousins, and he takes the guesswork out of the position that Mayfield brings.
Baker Mayfield
Prediction: Washington Football Team
Like we saw with Sam Darnold in 2020, someone will always gamble on a talented, but inconsistent former high draft pick after they flame out in their first stop. Mayfield has had moments of excellence in Cleveland, but the franchise’s timeline has changed quickly, and the Browns’ opportunity to improve offers the unique chance for someone else to take a flier on Mayfield regaining his form.
Mayfield isn’t as broken as Darnold was because he’s simply a better player. He’ll get back to health and regain some of his natural accuracy and playmaking skill. That baseline alone would be a worthwhile upgrade for Washington over Taylor Heinicke’s inconsistencies.
Acquiring Mayfield comes with zero long-term financial cost as well. His one-year, $18.8 million fifth-year option is a perfect prove-it deal that keeps Washington from avoiding the huge money owed to Matt Ryan. He also has more long-term upside than someone like Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Prediction: Steelers
Just when the 49ers’ season appeared to be in rookie Trey Lance’s hands, veteran Jimmy Garoppolo returned early from a nasty finger injury that seemingly ended his tenure with the franchise. Garoppolo is a solid system passer thanks to his short and intermediate accuracy and decision-making. It’s been hard for the 49ers to bench someone completing over 68.3 percent of passes with the second-highest yards per average (8.6).
It’s possible the 49ers keep Garoppolo beyond 2021 since 2022 is the final year of his deal. However, the team would benefit considerably from opening the $24.2 million in salary he’s owed. If Lance is considered close to ready, Garoppolo will be auctioned off to the highest-bidder.
The 30-year-old Garoppolo is another floor raiser who allows a creative offensive coordinator to maximize his athleticism and bank on Garoppolo executing schemed opportunities. He’s not the type to transcend a system and win many games with improvisation, but he’s the perfect bridge quarterback while a developmental talent is preparing for a bigger role.
There’s not a better fit than the Steelers. While Pittsburgh would surely love a more impactful starter, their cap situation is trickier than the $41 million in space would indicate. They’re also not a franchise that traditionally doles out huge financial obligations, so quarterbacks looking to cash in off a trade would be out of luck.
Pairing Garoppolo with a rookie quarterback would be ideal for Pittsburgh. In the meantime, Garoppolo would legitimize Matt Canada’s offense more than Ben Roethlisberger could with his weak arm and limited playmaking ability. Garoppolo is a willing system passer coming from a motion-based offense as well.