HOUSTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans walks off the field after a fumble in the fourth quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at NRG Stadium on December 27, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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This NFL offseason is poised to be one of the craziest ever. There are more quarterbacks available than ever before, we’ll also see veterans swapping teams in an unprecedented fashion through free agency, and teams will be scurrying to get under a shrinking salary cap number thanks to the pandemic’s effects on league revenue.
Half the league is in a tough cap crunch and will be restructuring deals to move money around, while the other half is ready to pick up value free agents looking for greener pastures. Contenders will be taking tough losses as they prioritize their in-house free agents and we’ll see teams flush with money trying to get value wherever they can before April’s draft. Paying more right now can help ease the pain coming in later years since the cap should explode when COVID-19 is controlled.
Teams will be making bold moves to get the most out of their transactions this offseason. We’re making 10 bold predictions for the upcoming free agency period.
2.Deshaun Watson doesn't get traded
The potential availability of the quarterback has several teams picking in the top-10 licking their chops. The 25-year-old superstar is an elite playmaker and yet to even start his meaty contract extension, meaning his salary isn’t an immediate issue for most interested parties. However, the Texans won’t just succumb to Watson’s desire to be traded. Nor should they.
Even though the organization has completely fumbled their opportunities to build around Watson at every turn, he’s an asset that’ll demand a historic trade haul. Only three teams in the league might be able to give the Texans what they’d need to trade Watson.
The return must include a young, talented quarterback either via pick or someone entering their prime like Watson. In this deep class, only the Jaguars, Jets and Dolphins meet that criteria. It just so happens each has two first-round picks this year to sweeten a deal.
The Jaguars will take Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 in April’s draft, making the Jets and Dolphins the best trade partners. Houston should ask for at least three first-round picks plus a quarterback. In Miami’s case, they could offer Tua Tagovailoa, both 2021 first rounders, a 2022 first and second rounder. Unless the Texans love Sam Darnold, they’d use the No. 2 overall pick on a quarterback.
Carolina is also lurking but their eighth overall pick isn’t nearly as enticing as a top-three selection. And the lack of other significant offers makes a deal difficult.
Worst case is Watson sits out 2021 and they trade him for a similar haul next year. Both parties should want to fix this situation and make it work before things get ugly.
3.Aging stars won't cash in long-term
The number of familiar names who dominated Pro Bowl voting in the mid 2010’s available is a sign of a new generation taking over. Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, DeSean Jackson, Ndamukong Suh, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, and Mike Pouncey represent a group of talented individuals who are staring short-term deals in the face. This free agency will be humbling to these stars.
Many rosters across the league have just a small handful of players 30 years of age or older for good reason. We’re seeing shorter careers as speed is accentuated in offensive schemes, and rookie contracts are another massive advantage. The only free agent older than 30 who might get more than two years on their deal is Lavonte David.
The lack of money on the market also affects this. Marvin Jones, Denzelle Good, Troy Hill, and Kyle Van Noy are solid starters but settle for less than they would in most years because of the lack of money for half the league.
4.Quarterback extensions will overshadow QB carousel
There are hopes of more trades featuring high-profile quarterbacks are coming, but the hype is misplaced. Instead of seeing Watson or Kirk Cousins traded, we’re more likely to see quarterbacks like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota land starting jobs than veterans currently in large contracts moving teams. It’ll be so underwhelming we’ll be more excited about the quarterback extensions for the 2018 draft class.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield could all receive extensions this offseason. This will put even more pressure on the Cowboys to extend Dak Prescott before we see deals swell over $40 million per-year. The ripple effect is more important than some of the less-impactful veteran swaps that free agency will offer due to a weak market.
5.Joe Douglas revamps the Jets
Having a ton of resources, new coaching staff, and lack of established stars across the roster will give the Jets general manager supreme control this offseason. Armed with the second-most cap space and the second overall pick, Douglas has a tremendous opportunity to overhaul this roster quickly.
The quarterback situation needs immediate attention, and there’s no reason to start this new regime with Darnold. Moving him for a Day 2 draft pick and taking his quarterback of choice at No. 2 is an easy decision as they reset the clock at the position and gain a good asset for a player who hasn’t developed. This is just the beginning though.
Signing a top receiver in free agency like Allen Robinson or JuJu Smith-Schuster would give considerable help to the offense. Shoring up the offensive line, taking a flier on an edge-rusher, and inking a good cornerback is all reasonable. Douglas hasn’t valued running backs in the past, but even landing Aaron Jones is justified when they have so much money and need a playmaker in the short-term.
Signing three very good players and two good ones, plus making the right call at quarterback could propel the Jets into immediate Wild Card contention. Douglas will absolutely try to make that happen this offseason.
6.Contenders will benefit from lower cap ceiling
Somewhat going hand-in-hand with our No. 2 prediction, contenders will feast on value as players take less on short-term deals to cash-in next year. Guaranteed money is attractive, but cap-stricken contenders won’t be able to offer the security players desire due to the Covid-impacted situation. And there’s so many quality free agents that not all of the impactful talent can go to the 10 teams with significant cap room.
We’ll see some major steals on the second-wave of free agency that benefit the team and player. Teams like Buffalo, Green Bay, Kansas City, and even the Rams can carve out the room to land a big name or a few pieces despite their current unfavorable cap situation.
It wouldn’t be stunning to see Yannick Ngakoue, Anthony Harris, Corey Davis, or Romeo Okwara take a shorter deal to try to cash in bigger next offseason. Having more suitors can help tremendously, and maybe those individuals find a better situation to fully maximize their value than what we saw in 2020.
7.The franchise tag will ruin hopes and dreams
Every season we see the franchise tag take several of the top players off the market and the list of quality difference-makers shrinks in an instant. This class is deeper but the same will happen. It’s possible we’ll see 10 players tagged.
Offensive stars Prescott, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Brandon Scherff, and Kenny Golladay headline the guys who should be tagged if they’re not extended long-term. They’re all too good to lose for nothing, and at worst a trade could materialize. The depth at each of their positions would suffer considerably without them there to create a bidding war.
The defensive side doesn’t quite have the same caliber of names but there’s still several talents who can’t be allowed to leave for nothing. Leonard Williams, Shaquil Barrett, and Justin Simmons are crucial for their incumbent teams. Barrett is one to watch since the Buccaneers can only use their tag on either him or Godwin.
8.Aaron Jones will have plenty of suitors
No fan base wants to pay for a running back after seeing so many of the top deals age poorly in recent years. Anytime this year’s top available back is linked to a team, the response is dread over a potential of a $10 million-a-year deal. Some of that is fair, but conversely Jones is quite good and paying him over drafting a back makes more sense for several teams.
Saving a premier pick for another position where there’s fewer free agent options and value is a better recipe for the Chargers, Jets, Dolphins, Texans, and Cardinals. It’s possible to structure a deal to create an out after Year 2 when Jones won’t even be 29 years old yet.
Jones is an excellent all-around back with only 651 attempts in four seasons. Green Bay’s underutilization of his skill set means he’s fresher than his peers, and can be more versatile as a receiver than even what we’ve seen to this point. Look at his contract as paying a playmaker instead of a receiver, and signing Jones will make more sense than splurging on another overpaid tailback.
9.Pass rushers will be overpaid
If you’re going to overpay in free agency, at least overpay on a premium position. But identifying which pass rusher is worthy of a large investment can be difficult because stat lines can be deceiving as to how the production came about. Not all sacks are equal in terms of how they’re created and the talent it takes to log them.
Free agents Leonard Williams (11.5 sacks), Romeo Okwara (10 sacks), Bud Dupree (19.5 sacks over last two years), Trey Hendrickson (13.5 sacks), Haason Reddick (12.5 sacks), and Leonard Floyd (10.5 sacks) loaded up the raw numbers. However none are dominant on their own, and fluffed their numbers thanks to more dominant teammates or schemed pressures. It’s likely none of these players will achieve this production elsewhere.
Several of the edge players are coming off injury-plagued seasons as well. Dupree tore an ACL and Jadeveon Clowney tore his meniscus. There’s a lot of buyer beware in this edge market.
10.The AFC will dominate spending
Of the top 14 teams with cap space right now, 11 are in the AFC. The Jaguars, Jets, Chargers, and Texans have brand new coaching staffs who will need to churn their roster to fit their desires. The Patriots, Colts, Broncos, Ravens, Browns, Dolphins, and Bengals are looking to address immediate needs to either save their jobs or push into the Super Bowl race.
It’s easy to see the AFC has the upper hand with money and motivation to chase the Chiefs. The NFC is more open in terms of competitors, but seven teams in the conference are over the cap right now and need to do significant work to sign even one notable name. We’ll see an arm’s race in the AFC.
11.Dolphins will trade down from No. 3 early
The competition to draft whichever quarterback the Jets don’t take will be heated. There’s a real possibility the Falcons want their quarterback of the future at No. 4, so leaping Atlanta for one of Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance is critical. Miami will be happy to move down.
Miami’s rumored to be in on the big-name receiver free agents, Jones, and expected to draft a receiver with their first pick. Moving down to accumulate even more assets only makes sense, especially when the top three receivers grade out closely. It’s possible Atlanta, Philadelphia, Carolina, and San Francisco could get into the trade business if free agency goes a certain way.
We’ve seen teams trade down when the iron is hot. Taking advantage of a desperate general manager only makes sense. Miami will benefit from teams striking out on veterans by taking a big offer to slide down just a few spots prior to the draft.