Image via Complex Original
33.
The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us, and if there's anything we've learned in the last several years it's that the play of your quarterback will likely determine your team’s fate. The rules of the league have evolved to the degree where you can barely touch the quarterback or the wide receivers, which in turn means that those guys' ability to execute on offense determines more often than not whether their team wins or loses the game.
But not all quarterbacks are created equal. For some like Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers, running a high-powered offense is practically second nature. For guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Geno Smith, it's not quite so simple. After all, there's a reason that Manning, Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and others find themselves deep in the playoffs every season, whereas guys like Fitzpatrick and Smith have never sniffed anything close to that.
There's a wealth of young quarterback talent in the NFL right now as well, with young guns like Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck challenging the old guard for the distinction of being the best passers in the league. They may not quite be there yet, but there are plenty of Pro Bowlers in this group who you would be happy to have leading your team.
In an annual tradition, we are taking a look at the entire league and are Ranking Every Starting Quarterback in the NFL.
32.Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Back-up: Matt Schaub
Best-case scenario: Derek Carr begins the process of restoring his family's name in the NFL by leading the Raiders to a .500 finish and ending the year with a respectable rookie stat line; something to the tune of 22 TDs and 10 INTs.
Worst-case scenario: After struggling early in the year, Carr is sent to hold a clipboard for the rest of season. Matt Schaub takes over the team and drives Oakland's rebuilding process straight into the ground, further halting the franchise's momentum with every errant pass and taken sack.
31.Geno Smith, New York Jets
Back-up: Michael Vick
Best-case scenario: Smith thrives under the pressure and gets the Jets above .500 with help from new toys Eric Decker and Chris Johnson.
Worst-case scenario: Geno still stinks, Vick is starting by Week 6, and Rex Ryan is gone by Week 10.
30.Shaun Hill, St. Louis Rams
Back-up: Austin Davis
Best-case scenario: Hahahahahaha.
Worst-case scenario: It's already happened.
29.Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns
Back-up: Johnny Manziel
Best-case scenario: He's still holding the job at the season's halfway point.
Worst-case scenario: Cleveland gets off to a terrible start and the pressure from both fans and the media forces the Browns to start Johnny Manziel.
28.Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans
Back-up: Ryan Mallett
Best-case scenario: Ryan Fitzpatrick manages to defy conventional wisdom and keep the Texans competitive in a relatively weak AFC South. Most importantly of all, he doesn't piss off the already-disgruntled Andre Johnson, keeping the ship stable in the first year of head coach Bill O'Brien's reign.
Worst-case scenario: Ryan Mallett is tabbed to take over signal-calling duties by Week 4, while Johnson demands a trade and threatens retirement. Sadly, Houston Texans fans become nostalgic for the days of Matt Schaub.
27.Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Back-up: Blake Bortles
Best-case scenario: Competent (if unspectacular) play from Henne allows the Jaguars to go 6-10 and not completely embarrass themselves.
Worst-case scenario: Henne is terrible, and as it turns out so is Blake Bortles. Fans put up a “Sign Tim Tebow” billboard near the stadium by Week 8.
26.Matt Cassel, Minnesota Vikings
Back-up: Teddy Bridgewater
Best-case scenario: Cassel does a good Alex Smith impression, maintaining a steady course without rocking the boat too much. Adrian Peterson does his thing, and the Vikes have a good environment for Cordarrelle Patterson and Teddy Bridgewater to develop into the future rock stars many people hope they will be.
Worst-case scenario: The former Tom Brady backup fails to lead, Teddy Bridgewater can't handle the pressure of a being a first-year starter, and the Vikings are right back where they started—talking about Christian Ponder's wife every Sunday.
25.Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Back-up: Mike Glennon
Best-case scenario: Josh picks up where he left off last year with the Bears and terrorizes the division with his two enormous (and enormously talented) WRs.
Worst-case scenario: He looks exactly like the 35-year-old, 12th year career backup QB that he is.
24.Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Back-up: Matt Moore
Best-case scenario: Tannehill continues his ascendance and the Dolphins surprise the NFL by winning the AFC East.
Worst-case scenario: Tannehill’s development flatlines, his amazingly gorgeous wife leaves him, and the Dolphins finish 6-10, costing Joe Philbin his job.
23.Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Back-up: Drew Stanton
Best-case scenario: Carson consistently throws to his wideouts more often than he does cornerbacks (a career-high 22 interceptions in 2013 was just embarrassing). Palmer learns the Arizona system, keeps the Cardinals in playoff contention for most of the season like he did last year, and gets the Cardinals into the postseason.
Worst-case scenario: Palmer throws another 20-plus INTs and does commercials like this. Either that or the 34-year-old vet suffers a career-ending injury. We're not sure which would be worse.
22.EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Back-up: Kyle Orton
Best-case scenario: Manuel forms a lethal combination with Sammy Watkins, and the Bills get to .500.
Worst-case scenario: Ravaged by injuries and hopelessness, the Bills turn to Kyle Orton and are picking No. 1 in the 2015 draft.
21.Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
Back-up: Charlie Whitehurst
Best-case scenario: Locker finally stays healthy for a full season and the Titans emerge as a legitimate threat to the Colts in the AFC South.
Worst-case scenario: Locker gets hurt again, forcing Charlie Whitehurst to put on a helmet and hide his beautiful hair from the world.
20.Eli Manning, New York Giants
Back-up: Ryan Nassib
Best-case scenario: Peyton's little brother masters the Giants' new offense and finds that his new favorite target is rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham. Also: He finds a way to actually throw more touchdown passes than interceptions.
Worst-case scenario: He spends the entire season making one long Manning Face.
19.Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Back-up: Kirk Cousins
Best-case scenario: RGIII looks like he did during the 2012 season when he threw for 20 touchdowns and ran for another seven while leading Washington to the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: RGIII looks like he did during the 2013 season when he didn't do anything that he did during the 2012 season and forced Washington to insert Kirk Cousins into the lineup late in the year.
18.Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Back-up: Chase Daniel
Best-case scenario: Smith strengthens his already solid decision-making, continues avoiding turnovers, and remembers to just keep handing the ball to Jamaal Charles. Oh, and he and Dwayne Bowe get on the same page.
Worst-case scenario: WCS No. 1: Smith starts believing he's a Top 10 QB and tries to take over the offense. WCS No. 2: Jamaal Charles goes down and the Chiefs have to rely on Alex to move the ball.
17.Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
Back-up: Mark Sanchez
Best-case scenario: Foles proves that last season wasn't a fluke by throwing for 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions again and the Eagles clinch a spot in the playoffs by Week 12 because the rest of the NFC East is as bad as it's projected to be.
Worst-case scenario: The second-year QB throws two interceptions in the Eagles' first game of the season and the “WE WANT SANCHEZ!” chants start early and often.
16.Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Back-up: Tyrod Taylor
Best-case scenario: Baltimore's easy schedule gives them a relatively safe path to a wild card berth, and Flacco bounces back from a rough 2013 to justify a bafflingly massive contract.
Worst-case scenario: Flacco starts where he left off in 2013 (his 22 INTs led the AFC), and leads Baltimore to an 0-2 start within the first five days of the regular season. The rough start has a snowball effect and leaves a franchise still looking for a leader after Ray Lewis's retirement grasping for straws.
15.Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Back-up: Bruce Gradkowski
Best-case scenario: The underratedly good Steelers offense leads Pittsburgh to a surprise AFC North crown and Big Ben catches fire to knock on the door of the exclusive “Three Ring” club.
Worst-case scenario: His propensity to keep plays alive outside the pocket finally catches up with him at age 32 and he suffers a shot that has him watching from the sideline for weeks on end.
14.Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Back-up: Jason Campbell
Best-case scenario: Gets the Bengals in to the postseason and finally leads them to their first playoff victory in 24 years.
Worst-case scenario: Has another solid regular season before choking in January.
13.Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Back-up: Dan Orlovsky
Best-case scenario: Stafford finally learns to take advantage of his full arsenal and starts throwing to receivers who are not named “Calvin Johnson”. As a result of the offense's versatile attack, Detroit lands a playoff berth as a Wild Card team.
Worst-case scenario: Stafford reverts to his familiar habits, leaning on Megatron to jumpstart the offense and forcing bad throws in tight windows at every opportunity. Sensing the need to guide his young quarterback, Jim Caldwell can only offer a dead-eyed, slightly confused stare.
12.Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Back-up: Jimmy Clausen
Best-case scenario: Cutler and Mark Trestman continue down their path of becoming BFFs, and the offense grows into a Top 5 threat while Cutty stays healthy. They air it out down field more while Alshon Jeffry and Brandon Marshall—already the top receiving duo in the league—make Sundays extremely painful for opposing defenses.
Worst-case scenario: Brandon Marshall gets jealous of Alshon Jeffery's rising status and lets it affect his play on the field and his demeanor in the locker room.
11.Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Back-up: Derek Anderson
Best-case scenario: Superman finally fully realizes his potential, rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin rises to the occasion, and Cam gets to fake-unbutton his jersey in the endzone on his way to an NFC title.
Worst-case scenario: The world watches as Cam struggles to carry an offense with two geriatric RBs and Greg Olsen as its best receiver.
10.Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Back-up: T.J. Yates
Best-case scenario: Behind better protection and with healthy receiving corps, Matty Ice leads the Dirty Birds from (tied for) worst-to-first in the NFC South.
Worst-case scenario: For the fourth straight year he sees his interceptions increase, Atlanta shows no improvement in the trenches, and Ryan is helpless as even the Buccaneers beat up on his Falcons.
9.Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Back-up: Kellen Clemens
Best-case scenario: Rivers continues to turn back the clock by posting another career year, making his sixth Pro Bowl, and—with the help of a tough San Diego defense—leads the Chargers back into the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: At age 32, Rivers begins his inevitable decline. The Chargers sink back into the mediocrity that defined the last three seasons of former head coach Norv Turner's reign. In the 2014-15 NFL Draft, San Diego selects Frank “Cush” Cushman to restart the franchise.
8.Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Back-up: Brandon Weeden
Best-case scenario: The NFL's favorite punching bag throws for more than 30 touchdowns again like he did last season to help offset the fact that the Cowboys' defense stinks and somehow Dallas finishes above .500 and sneaks into the playoffs.
Worst-case scenario: The Cowboys finish 4-12 and Jerry Jones decides to orchestrate a trade for Johnny Manziel.
7.Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Back-up: Blaine Gabbert
Best-case scenario: Colin Kaepernick gets over the NFC championship and Super Bowl humps to bring San Francisco its first title since the 1994 season.
Worst-case scenario: The 49ers go from being a contender with a couple players who've gotten into trouble with the law to a team that makes headlines exclusively for arrests. Aldon Smith, Ray McDonald, Daniel Kilgore, and Chris Culliver have all been arrested in the last year. A few others—including Kaepernick—have been investigated by the police. Kaep's numbers take an even bigger dip than last year and the Niners go from Super Bowl contender to falling off the face of the earth.
6.Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Back-up: Matt Hasselbeck
Best-case scenario: The return of Reggie Wayne and the emergence of Luck get the Colts past the first round of the playoffs, and Luck makes a third consecutive Pro Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: After defying predictions that they’d struggle in each of the last two seasons, the Colts struggle due to a mediocre Luck and a brutal defense, missing the playoffs.
5.Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Back-up: Tarvaris Jackson
Best-case scenario: Wins back-to-back titles and joins the company of Bart Starr, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, John Elway, and Tom Brady. Joining that company propels him to elite status and—barring any ridiculous debilitating injuries or falling completely off the wagon—Wilson sets himself up for a Hall of Fame career.
Worst-case scenario: Marshawn Lynch's body finally breaks down from being 75 in running back years and averaging 300 carries the last three seasons. The Seahawks' anemic 202 passing YPG stat (26th in the league last year) doesn't improve, and defenses (now armed with more film on his tendencies) key in on Wilson and expose his weaknesses. The trend of Super Bowl champions not making the playoffs the following year continues.
4.Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Back-up: Jimmy Garapollo
Best-case scenario: The return of Gronk, addition of Brandon LaFell, and development of Aaron Dobson gives Brady enough weapons for a 40 TD season and another trip to the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Father Time finally catches up to No. 12, and his play starts to slip as the Pats lose their stranglehold on the AFC East.
3.Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Back-up: Luke McCown
Best-case scenario: Fifty touchdowns, a Super Bowl victory, and (after welcoming his fourth child into the world a few weeks back) another post-victory headphone'd baby confetti photo-op.
Worst-case scenario: The NFC South's reign of parity finally ends as Brees shows his age and Carolina asserts their dominance over the division.
2.Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Back-up: Matt Flynn
Best-case scenario: The Packers keep Rodgers off his back, and hence keep him off the injury report, which is all you need to get a 40-touchdown, 10-interception, 100-passer rating season out of the former MVP. The Pack out-offenses the Bears to win the division and can finally get over that 49ers hump that is made out of Kaepernick's abs.
Worst-case scenario: Rodgers suffers more concussions, which kill the season and put his entire career into question, much like his teammate Jermichael Finley.
1.Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Back-up: Brock Osweiler
Best-case scenario: A second Super Bowl victory for Manning brings his career record in the Big Game to a respectable .500, and pulls him even with his little brother in the rings count. Along with the Lombardi trophy, Manning also pulls in his sixth NFL MVP award.
Worst-case scenario: Manning's neck finally gives out, forcing a premature end to his storied career. The Broncos fall short of winning the hardware they hoped to earn by signing Manning. Depressed and inconsolable at the loss of his quarterback, Wes Welker wanders into the Rocky Mountains in a molly-induced state of euphoria.