EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - JANUARY 02: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers speaks to an official after a play in the first quarter of the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on January 02, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Get hyped all you want that your squad’s in the dance, one of 14 teams that ended up being good enough to qualify for the NFL playoffs and, should they win enough games, potentially earns a chance to attain immortality in Super Bowl LVI.
But I’m here to throw cold water on your good vibes and do my very best to curb your enthusiasm before the best football of the year kicks off next weekend.
Because for all the reasons NFL observers can rationalize why this team or that team has the best chance of raising the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium Sunday, Feb. 13—or wherever the big game ends up being played, since the pandemic just won’t let any of us live our best lives—I can point out at least one big reason why it ain’t going to happen.
Sure, having the (likely) regular-season MVP under center should mean winning the Super Bowl is light work, but I have a stat that proves otherwise. No. 1 seeds have an overwhelmingly easier path to getting to the big game, but if you do some research, there’s a big reason why you can eliminate the top team in the AFC from serious Super Bowl consideration. And while it’s awesome having one of the most explosive offenses in all of football, what good is it when you have a coach who manages the clock worse than 99 percent of Madden players?
I think you get what we’re going for with this one. Fourteen teams, one reason each why they won’t win Super Bowl LVI, from stupid distractions to curses to quirky statistics. Let the record show we warned you it was fait accompli for your favorite squad.
AFC
Titans
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +850
Why they won’t win it: Do your research
There are a lot of reasons to like the Titans, especially now that Derrick Henry appears like he’ll be back on the field in a few weeks following foot surgery earlier in the season. The AFC’s top seed got great news heading into Week 18 when their star running back returned to practice off injured reserve. Plus, Mike Vrabel is an underrated coach and doesn’t get the respect he deserves compared to some of his more famous and accomplished colleagues. But we’re not here to say nice things about the Titans. We’re here to highlight the bad. What’s the reason Tennessee will not win the Super Bowl? A negative turnover differential. The Titans finished the regular-season with a -3 turnover differential and the last team to win it all featuring such a putrid discrepancy when it comes to giveaways compared to takeaways was the Broncos (-4) in 2015. Six of the last seven Super Bowl winners have all finished with positive turnover differentials.
Chiefs
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +450
Why they won’t win it: “Slumping” Patrick Mahomes
There’s a reason the Chiefs feature the shortest odds in the AFC to win it all. Offensively, KC has more than its fair share of game-breakers and just happens to have the best quarterback not named Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. But that QB, despite putting up numbers that look pretty similar to last season’s, was kinda “off” during a good part of Kansas City’s 12-5 campaign, making more questionable throws and decisions than in years past. Describing Patrick Mahomes as being in a “slump” is probably too strong, especially since he’s put some of those early season struggles behind him and most of his interceptions came during the first half of the season. But Mahomes ended his season with by far the lowest QBR (62.6) of his career, throwing 13 interceptions as he was sacked a career-high 28 times. Obviously, not every interception and sack is on Mahomes, but when you set such a high standard, like he has over the past three seasons, including that incredible 2018 MVP campaign, any kind of reductions in the QB’s production sets off alarms.
Bills
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +750
Why they won’t win it: History
Alright, maybe this reason is a bit of a stretch because there’s a lot to like about the Bills, especially since they finished the season sporting the No. 1 defense in the NFL. But the football gods just won’t let Buffalo have nice things. Four-straight appearances in the big game in the early ‘90s with no Vince Lombardi Trophy to show for it is all the evidence we need to know the Bills are cursed and will never be allowed to win it all. Maybe it’s the bad vibes of Bills Mafia acting like derelicts in the parking lot before every home game, destroying Western New York’s supply of fold-up tables and other perishable goods eight Sundays every fall and early winter. Or maybe it’s something else swirling in the air outside Highmark Stadium as complicated talks between the team, New York State, and Erie County continue in an effort to build the Bills a new stadium.
Bengals
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +1700
Why they won’t win it: Can’t protect Joe Burrow
The Bengals are a team on the rise, and having emerged from the rugged AFC North as division champions, they absolutely deserve respect. But if you don’t know, now you know that Cincinnati’s offensive line allowed the second-highest sack rate (106.9) in the NFL this season. No team in the playoffs allowed anywhere near as many sacks as Cincinnati did, so the idea that the Bengals can ride a shaky pass protection all the way to the big game is laughable.
Raiders
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +5500
Why they won’t win it: Résumé
It took one helluva effort for the Raiders to secure their spot in the postseason, persevering over the Chargers in one of the most dramatic regular-season finales football fans will ever get to enjoy. It’s great that Derek Carr finally gets to start in a playoff game and that the Raiders became the first team since the 1960s to make the playoffs the same year they made an in-season coaching change. But it’s probably going to be a short stay because Las Vegas only has two wins over teams in the playoffs (Dallas and Philadelphia). The Raiders will travel to Cincinnati Saturday to kick off the three-day weekend playoff extravaganza and, in case you forgot, the Bengals beat the Raiders earlier this season, smoking them at Allegiant Stadium in November, 32-13.
Patriots
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +2200
Why they won’t win it: Rookie QB
Bill Belichick works his magic (annoyingly, ridiculously, exasperatingly for everyone other than Patriots fans) unlike any other coach, and betting against him usually means you just wasted your money. Look at Mac Jones’ ascension as the best rookie signal caller over guys who were way more heralded than him entering the league (we’re talking, of course, about Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields). But if you know your football history then you’re obviously well aware there’s no chance in hell a rookie quarterback is going to lead his team to victory on the game’s biggest stage. It’s never happened, nor has a rookie quarterback ever gotten a start in a Super Bowl. Maybe next year, Mac.
Steelers
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +9000
Why they won’t win it: Geriatric QB
If you’re feeling all warm and fuzzy thinking about Ben Roethlisberger’s (almost assuredly) final run into the playoffs under center for the Steelers, that’s good, fantastic. But only a Terrible Towel waver would have the audacity to dream of Big Ben leading Pittsburgh on one last run to the Super Bowl when the 39-year-old QB looks older than the Weeknd on his new album cover. Roethlisberger is ancient, can barely move around the pocket, and leads an offense that’s been wildly inconsistent throughout the season. He gets to face the Chiefs in Arrowhead for the second time in three weeks. The day after Christmas, Kansas City put a hurtin’ on Pittsburgh, crushing them 36-10. The Steelers ain’t sniffing the Super Bowl.
NFC
Packers
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +380
Why they won’t win it: MVP jinx
Chances are, despite the protestations of one self-righteous voter, Aaron Rodgers is going to win his fourth NFL MVP when the league announces the 2021 regular-season award winners in February. And that’s not a good thing for the Packers. Here’s why: Take a wild guess the last time the MVP won the Super Bowl in the same season? Rewind 22 years and your answer is Kurt Warner, who pulled off the feat in 1999 when he was also named Super Bowl MVP as the leader of The Greatest Show on Turf. While you can clown Rodgers all you want for the ridiculous nonsense he spewed about vaccines earlier in the season, you can’t deny that he’s still a top 3 quarterback and just had one of his best seasons ever at age 38, leading the league in QBR, TD%, and INT%.
Buccaneers
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +750
Why they won’t win it: The distraction that is Antonio Brown
The defending Super Bowl champs absolutely could use a healthy Antonio Brown, there’s zero doubt about that. But the reason Tampa isn’t repeating is because AB will continue to be a distraction as he feuds with the team in the wake of that bizarre Week 17 episode at MetLife Stadium and takes shots are former BFF Tom Brady. And we all know there’s nothing organizations despise more than a distraction. For every report that tries to shed light onto what the hell really happened between AB and the Bucs, and for every podcast appearance AB makes where he flames everyone in the franchise, Tampa Bay’s odds of winning should plummet like GameStop stock.
Cowboys
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +1100
Why they won’t win it: Mike McCarthy
No coach is more of a liability on the sidelines than Mike McCarthy, who possesses the uncanny ability to always make the wrong decision, whether it comes to clock management, fourth down decisions, coach’s challenges, or just straight up horrific game-planning. Despite inconsistencies, the Cowboys easily have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and are clearly a threat to make a run to the big game if Dak Prescott and company are clicking and Dallas’ defensive stars—Micah Parsons (if he plays next weekend) and Trevon Diggs—continue to make game-changing plays. But we all know a whopper of a McCarthy blunder is coming to derail the Boys’ run to their first Super Bowl appearance in 25 seasons.
Rams
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +950
Why they won’t win it: Too many stars
It’s all too appropriate that one of the Los Angeles teams features a contingent of household names unrivaled by any other franchise. But this isn’t the NBA. Star-packed squads in the NFL rarely, if ever, exceed or even meet the insane expectations placed upon them. We all know football’s the ultimate team game and while it’s cool that LA acquired Odell Beckham and Von Miller in the middle of the season, and already featured Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and Matthew Stafford, odds are the Rams will end up being a Hollywood flop a la The Suicide Squad.
Cardinals
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +2100
Why they won’t win it: Kliff Kingsbury’s horrific second-half of the season record
You’ve seen that stat, right? Going back to his days coaching Texas Tech, Kliff Kingsbury owns a ghastly record once his teams—we’re talking college and NFL here—get past the Week 7 mark. The coach is just 17-43 in games played during the “second half” of the season dating back to 2013. How much stock you want to put in his record while in charge of the Red Raiders and how it translates to the NFL is up to you, but Kingsbury is just 9-19 record during the second half of the NFL season since he took over the Cardinals in 2019.
49ers
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +2100
Why they won’t win it: You trusting Jimmy G?
Props are due to Jimmy G for gritting out a win on the road against the Rams, storming back from 17 points down while battling an injured hand. Nobody’s questioning the guy’s toughness after that performance. And two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance, featuring a lot of the same personnel, the Niners are earning a ton of praise as the team in the NFC that nobody wants to play in the postseason. But is it not fair to question Garoppolo’s ability to do that again next week in Dallas? From a guy whose back-breaking interceptions have practically become a trademark? Yeah, it is. Fade the Niners.
Eagles
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI: +5500
Why they won’t win it: Zero wins against playoff teams
A 9-8 wild card team out of the NFC East… playing in arguably the weakest division in football, although the NFC North has something to say about that… winning four-straight games away from home… even though Philly was 6-3 on the road this season… Hell no, the Eagles are not winning it all. But here’s a legit reason why they have zero chance of emerging as champs: Philly went a pathetic 1-6 against teams who were still eligible for the postseason heading into Week 18. The only win amongst that bunch came against the Saints in Week 11 and New Orleans’ hopes of reaching the playoffs were hanging by a thread entering Sunday and ultimately dashed.