PHOENIX, AZ - DECEMBER 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns look on during the game on December 25, 2021 at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images)
If you want to get technical, the second half started a long time ago, since teams have played roughly 70 percent of the schedule. But as we enter the dog days of the NBA season—when the calendar turns to March and players are fighting off fatigue and injuries, eagerly anticipating either the start of the postseason or their offseason—there are plenty of pressing questions that remain unanswered.
The playoffs officially start April 16, and as teams begin their stretch run, a quick scan of the league turns up a few salacious storylines that probably won’t be resolved anytime soon and a number of topics worthy of debate on talk radio or First Take. Like, for instance, is it time to question LeBron James’ future in Los Angeles? Who will emerge as the winner, this year, of the James Harden-for-Ben Simmons swap? And precisely which teams should we pin as the favorites to emerge from the East and West when so much can happen between now and May, since we’re a shade under three months away from the conference finals tipping off?
I could bore you with more filler, but why bother? The second half of the season begins Thursday, and below you’ll see the eight questions we want answered.
Is This the Beginning of the End of LeBron in Los Angeles?
The Lakers are trash, and the idea that Los Angeles is good enough to get out of the first-round of the playoffs this spring—if they even make it out of the Play-In Tournament—is something only delusional Lakers fans would entertain. LA ain’t going anywhere this season, and the way things are shaping up right now, it could be more of the same next season if the franchise can’t seriously overhaul the roster.
If you didn’t know, LeBron James is incredibly calculated when it comes to the words he speaks and things he puts out on social media. So all the praise he heaped on other NBA general managers—like the Thunder’s Sam Presti and the Cavs’ Koby Altman—over All-Star weekend can easily be interpreted as a shot at Lakers vice president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka, who put together this putrid Lakers roster (of course, with LeBron’s blessings) and failed to do anything to bulk it up at the trade deadline, reportedly against the wishes of the superstar. Then again, what could he really do? The outlook appears bleak, since Pelinka and the front office will very likely struggle to seriously improve LA’s roster in free agency. Russell Westbrook is practically un-tradeable, since he has a player-option for $47 million next season that he’s obviously picking up. The Lakers do not have a first-round pick that they control for the next four years and have no attractive trade chips, since it seems implausible they would deal Anthony Davis. They’re best asset is… LeBron.
So speculating if James wants to stick it out with the Lakers, since he only has one more year left on his deal—he doesn’t have a no-trade clause—and will enter his age 38 season still playing at an absurdly high level for another mediocre Lakers team is legit. Sure, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of LeBron sticking it out with the Lakers because his family seems firmly entrenched in Los Angeles, he’s given no indication he wants to relocate, and there’s a certain cachet playing for the purple and gold that can’t be equaled anywhere else. But does James want to waste another season suiting up for the Lakers? When the franchise’s second-best player, A.D., unfortunately just can’t stay healthy and the seismic roster moves required to keep up with the rest of the West might not be feasible? The Warriors and Suns aren’t going anywhere. Better versions of the Clippers and Nuggets will return next season. The Grizzlies are on the rise. It appears like marginal moves are the only moves the Lakers can make to improve the roster to LeBron’s liking for the 2022-23 campaign. What would you do if you were James?
Who Wins the Harden-for-Simmons Trade (This Year)?
If you ask me who won the blockbuster Nets-Sixers trade at the deadline, it’s clearly Brooklyn. Especially looking at the long game, considering Ben Simmons is only 25 years old, the Nets have him under contract for three more seasons after this, and they nabbed Seth Curry and Andre Drummond to bolster their bench, while also snagging two future first-round picks.
But in the short term? It easily could be the Sixers, since Philadelphia traded for one of the elite scorers in the NBA (when he’s healthy and actually gives a fuck). The Beard undeniably makes Philly way more dynamic on offense now compared to a few weeks ago, and Joel Embiid had to have been jumping for joy when the 76ers pulled off the blockbuster trade deadline deal to acquire James Harden. But it’s going to be interesting to see how the two fit, since Embiid isn’t a natural pick-and-roll partner for Harden and we all know he needs to remain the focal point of Philly’s offense. Defensively, it gets even more complicated with Harden’s penchant for switching. Meanwhile, I would argue Simmons fits exceedingly well in Brooklyn, given what he does well and what the Nets were lacking prior to the trade. It’ll be fascinating to watch how quickly Simmons 1) finally gets his ass into a game, and 2) meshes with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the few contests the three of them can actually play together, considering Irving’s vaccination status with New York City’s mandate remains an ongoing issue (although it sounds like that’s changing shortly) and Durant’s injury situation.
Regardless, we need to see these two squads square off in the playoffs. If the NBA really rigs games for the sake of TV ratings like every conspiracy theorist believes—they don’t, FYI, but it’s fun to joke about—then we need a Nets-Sixers second-round series. We need Philly fans foaming at the mouth to lambast Simmons, and we need Durant jawing at Harden, his former running mate, who wanted out of Brooklyn 13 months after his celebrated arrival. My two cents: I’ll take a fully healthy and loaded Brooklyn over a similarly stacked Philadelphia in seven games.
Who Is the Favorite in the East?
Is it Brooklyn? Nah. Is it Philadelphia? Nope.
The favorites should be the defending champions. While their defensive numbers have slipped from recent seasons, and not having the services of Pat Connauhgton and Brook Lopez is far from ideal, I’d argue the Bucks are the most complete team and clearly feature the best two-way player in basketball in Giannis Antetokounmpo, who, if you haven’t noticed, is playing at an MVP-level yet again. Milwaukee may not own the East’s best record (currently in 5th place with the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA), but I wouldn’t bet against that veteran crew, led by the Greek Freak, when both the Sixers and Nets must work in major new pieces in the middle of the season and the Bulls, who currently sit in second in the East, haven’t proved they can beat the conference’s elite.
Seriously, I think we can rule out Chicago as serious contenders. While we all underestimated them heading into the season and they’ve clearly outperformed expectations, the injury-riddled Bulls have yet to beat the Heat, Sixers, or Bucks this season. I’m ruling out Boston, too, even though its defensive numbers have been ultra-impressive since the beginning of the new year. But take a closer look at their recent hot streak and you can poke a lot of holes in it. The Cavs are ahead of schedule, but nobody’s entertaining the idea that they’re getting out of the first-round.
If you haven’t noticed, we haven’t mentioned Miami yet, who have a lot going for them, led by the always quotable Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and supporting cast that’s helped the Heat run out to the East’s best record at the All-Star break. Their coach, Erik Spoelstra, is a living legend and the Heat, owners of a top 5 net rating in the league, probably features the most rugged roster in the conference. While I’m clearly not sold on the Heat being the team to beat, there’s a lot to like about Miami when it’s at full-strength and you can easily argue the roster’s better built for the postseason anyway. I’d gladly sign up for a Bucks-Heat conference finals. Put me down for Bucks in seven.
Are the Knicks Good Enough to Make the Play-In Tournament?
Hell. No. What has New York shown, especially after it dropped seven of its final eight games before the All-Star break, which included coughing up massive double-digit leads in the second half of games against Portland and Brooklyn, that makes you think it’s a team that can earn a top 10 seed in the East?
The Knicks currently sit 2.5 games behind the Wizards for 11th place. Their stretch of nine games post-All-Star break will be a doozy, since New York faces the Heat, Sixers (twice), Suns, Clippers, Kings, Mavericks, Grizzlies, and Nets starting Friday. Seven of those contests come on the road. If you’ve watched them this season, signing up for one win amongst that gauntlet of a slate might be asking too much of the Knickerbockers.
New York, yet again is a dumpster fire, underperforming after last year’s fourth place finish in the East and reports have recently surfaced that there’s a faction of front office execs that want to pin this season’s poor results on coach Tom Thibodeau as the defense has regressed. What about the architects of the roster, who gave out big money to Evan Fournier, Nerlens Noel, and injury-prone Derrick Rose? Julius Randle, who earned a big extension last summer, is playing better of late, but he hasn’t come close to replicating his second-team All-NBA season from last year. While I praised the relatively low-risk signing of Kemba Walker last summer, his homecoming has been a bust and now there’s a good chance he never plays for the Knicks again after it was announced Wednesday he’s sitting out the rest of this season to concentrate on getting ready for next season.
Honestly, it kind of feels like the Knicks are devolving back to their bad old ways of making suspect roster decisions then pinning all their hopes on fixing a broken roster by inking a superstar savior in a few summers when they’re projected to have a ton of cap space in the summer of 2023. Currently 12th in the East, the Knicks are better off punting on this season, playing the kids, and earning a high lottery pick—even if this year’s draft class isn’t shaping up to be stellar—than flirting with the Play-In. “Bing Bong” feels like a million years ago.
Suns or Warriors in the West?
Chris Paul’s broken thumb makes you take a step back for a second on the Suns. Ideally, Phoenix gets its point guard back just before the playoffs begin in April and CP3 picks up right where he left off. But other than that, what’s not to like about the Suns, owners of the NBA’s best net rating and top record? The roster is arguably better than last year’s squad that made the NBA Finals meaning Phoenix is primed to repeat as Western Conference champions should they have a fully functional Point God running the show when the games really matter.
The only squad that could keep them from a second straight trip to the Finals are the Warriors, who own a 2-1 record against Phoenix this season, with the final meeting between the two coming at the end of March in San Francisco. Steph Curry’s shooting slump is behind him. Klay Thompson continues to round into form. And as long as Golden State gets its defensive anchor, Draymond Green, back from the back injury that’s kept him out for weeks now, there’s no reason why the NBA’s best defensive squad, featuring two of the best shooters of all time and All-Star starter Andrew Wiggins, shouldn’t be earmarked for the conference finals showdown with the Suns.
If you’re making me pick…Suns over Warriors in six.
Will the Grizzlies Make Noise in the Postseason?
If you expected Memphis to be sitting in third in the Western Conference standings at the All-Star break, you’re a goddamn liar.
Many believed Memphis would be a fringe playoff squad this season, but thanks to Ja Morant, who absolutely deserves some MVP love, and a supporting cast that doesn’t give a fuck who it’s facing—just ask LeBron—the Grizzlies should absolutely be considered a threat in the West.
With wins over the Suns, Warriors, Heat, Bucks, Bulls, 76ers, and the NBA’s fifth-best net rating, the Grizz aren’t intimidated by anybody, and the narrative that they can’t compete with the best is just silly. Yeah, the team lacks playoff experience, and they aren’t a particularly great shooting squad, but the Grizzlies do have a top 10 defense, and the brilliance of Morant—coupled with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr.—absolutely can carry this squad to the Western Conference semis at the least and potentially put a serious scare into the West’s best.
Who is the MVP?
Some seasons, there’s a clear-cut leader in the race for MVP. Somebody just dominates month after month and ultimately is so consistent there’s zero debate who deserves it. Steph Curry in 2016, when he became the NBA’s first unanimous MVP, and Nikola Jokic last season, earning 91.0 percent of the first-place MVP votes, are two examples that come to mind of players that were the front-runners to win it throughout the majority of the season. And you couldn’t argue anybody else was worthy of the award unless you were pulling a “Troel” Embiid.
But this year? With all its ebbs and flows, injuries and inconsistencies? It feels like the front-runner for MVP has changed month to month. First it was Curry, when he was lighting it up for Golden State during the season’s first weeks. LeBron started to gain some steam when his numbers were poppin’ and the Lakers weren’t a complete shitshow. Kevin Durant was cooking like never before and lifting the Nets to the heights of the Eastern Conference before getting injured. Hell, DeMar DeRozan deserves serious props for his recent run.
All that being said, it feels like the MVP race has narrowed and come into focus in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break, leaving Joel Embiid as arguably the front-runner. According to Odds Shark, the Sixers big man is the favorite right now, since JoJo has been scintillating, putting up nine 40-point, 10-rebound performances that puts him in elite company. But the race ain’t a done deal.
Since he leads the league in PER at 32.57 (which would be an NBA record), improbably has the Nuggets sitting in sixth place despite not having the services of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and currently sits atop Basketball-Reference’s MVP Award Tracker, with a 36 percent probability rate of winning it, Jokic is more than worthy of winning the award for a second straight season. As mentioned above, Giannis Antetokounmpo is yet again putting up monster numbers, and he sits behind Jokic on the MVP Award Tracker, with a 25.8 percent probability of winning it (he’s second in PER). Embiid is currently third in the tracker, with a 11.6 percent probability rate (he’s third in PER).
Friendly reminder: formulas don’t win MVP races. Narratives usually do. And Embiid probably has the strongest one right now, having never won the award—voters love to crown first-time winners—and carrying Philly to a surprising 35-23 record in the East despite playing 70 percent of the season without a fellow max money player. But if I had to vote right now… give it to Jokic since he’s statistically having an even better season this year compared to last, which is mind boggling (insert eyes emoji: 26.0 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 7.9 APG with a 61.6 EFG%, +25.2 On/Off Diff!?!).
What’s the Deal With Zion Williamson?
Unless Zion Williamson speaks up to put a stop to all the wild speculation and innuendo that he’s secretly plotting a way out of New Orleans in short order, the most salacious and sordid rumors in the Association will continue to originate from the Bayou. Williamson hasn’t played a game this season after breaking his foot last summer, which the Pelicans didn’t reveal until months later. It sounds like Williamson, who may or may not require a second surgery on his injured foot that hasn’t healed properly, isn’t going to suit up at all and after C.J. McCollum revealed during All-Star Weekend that he hadn’t heard directly from the former No. 1 pick upon his trade to New Orleans. That fired up the talking heads to take direct aim at Williamson as a teammate and speculate that his behavior could be laying the groundwork for him forcing a trade.
That’s wild speculation, of course, but Williamson’s happiness, or lack thereof, in New Orleans just might be the biggest off-the-court storyline in the NBA from now until we reach free agency. We all know the forward is a generational talent when he’s healthy, but he’s only played in 85 games in three seasons. The Pelicans were already up against the odds of keeping Williamson long term, given the history of stars (Chris Paul and Anthony Davis) not staying for long in New Orleans, the NBA’s second-smallest market. If the Pelicans have indeed bungled his injury and the roster it’s built around him remains mildly enticing at best, would Williamson do something that’s never been done before and turn down the max extension he’s eligible for this summer, come back on a qualifying offer, and enter full-blown free agency in 2023? A former No. 1 pick has never made such an audacious decision—they always take the massive money, then figure out a way to get out of town later—but if Williamson really is fed up, maybe he makes NBA history. And maybe, if he informs the Pelicans that he isn’t long for New Orleans, they start to seriously shop him over the summer.