Image via Kevin Mazur/Getty
Let's not jinx it, but this might be the first year the Grammys get it right.
After years—decades, really—of complaints about how the voting board behind music's biggest award show is missing the point, 2018's slate of nominees gesture towards and Academy that's shaking itself awake. From two rap albums in the Album of the Year category to Lil Uzi Vert, SZA, and Khalid vying for Best New Artist to Donald Glover potentially making the keynote speech, this year's award show promises to actually reflect the best music that came out last year. It may be too little, too late, but it's refreshing to see a slate of nominees that don't elicit automatic groans.
We took a look at all the categories and picked the nominees most likely to come away with hardware, who would win in a perfect world, and which artists to keep an eye on in each category. These are our predictions for the 2018 Grammys.
Album of the Year
Who Will Win: Bruno Mars, 24K Magic
This year's slate for Album of the Year is tougher—and, if we're being honest, better—than the usual race. If Kendrick, Jay, Lorde, or Childish Gambino won, there'd be reason to celebrate. But it's Bruno Mars, the pint-sized impresario who's wrung well over a year out of his fantastic 24K Magic that's emerging as our front-runner. He's popular, which is usually the best benchmark for success in this category, and the Recording Academy always loves a classicist, which the throwback-y Mars plays to a T.
Who Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, DAMN.
This was, simply put, the best album of the year. Kendrick packed a lifetime's worth of thoughts into a single, impossibly compact album. It's a deceptively calm statement album, one that never lets up on its own artistic vision. It's the work of a rapper at the peak of his powers, and in a year of great rap albums, it showed who's leading the pack right now. Oh, and it sold super well.
Dark Horse: Childish Gambino, Awaken, My Love!
Let's be real for one second: there's no way an album with a song as bad as "California" on it should be in contention for Album of the Year. But, seeing as it is, it's hard not to imagine how exciting it would be to see Donald Glover on that stage, accepting the biggest award in music. We're all rooting for the man to (seemingly inevitably) EGOT, after all. It's hard not to root for the polymath sketching out the most interesting career in the arts to win it all, but there's the feeling that this isn't the right album for him to take home the hardware for. He would make the best acceptance speech, though.
Record of the Year
Will Win: Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee f/ Justin Bieber, "Despacito"
It seems inevitable that the Grammys, always slow to pick up on what's happening in popular culture, will belatedly recognize that people listen to music in languages other than English. And the natural place to start is with a song that already has 4.7 billion views on YouTube.
Should Win: Childish Gambino, "Redbone"
Donald Glover is a polymath: standup comic, actor, writer, rapper, Lando Calrissian, and creator and showrunner of arguably the best program on television. So it only makes sense that when he wants to make what is basically a P-Funk album, he's somehow able to do that too. What "Awaken, My Love!" highlight "Redbone" lacks in originality, it more than makes up for in soul, passion, and surprisingly convincing Prince-style screams.
Dark Horse: Kendrick Lamar, "HUMBLE"
Kendrick is owed at least two Album of the Year trophies by now. So it's possible, if unlikely, that acknowledgement of that fact will lead to K. Dot triumphing in this category
Song of the Year
Will Win: Bruno Mars, "That’s What I Like"
Should Win: Jay-Z, "4:44"
Dark Horse: Logic f/ Alessia Cara & Khalid, "1-800-273-8255"
Best New Artist
Will Win: Alessia Cara
Alessia Cara’s antisocial anthem “Here” put her on the map back in 2015,and she’s been nominated for some variation of best new artist (see also: breakout, breakthrough, newcomer) 13 times since then. She’s even won several times. Why are the Grammys just taking notice of the Canadian songstress as a "new artist" now? Her collab with Logic and fellow Best New Artist nominee Khalid on "1-800-273-8255," which is also up for Best Song, could have put her on their radar. It could also be because the Grammys, despite their improved efforts, are still hella out of touch. Either way, Alessia Cara will definitely scoop this award up: she’s young, talented, and way safer (read: boring) bet for the Grammys than say, Lil Uzi Vert.
Should Win: SZA
SZA’s previous work—several promising but inconsistent EPs—positioned her as an artist to watch, but her debut album Ctrl showed what she was truly capable of. Ctrl, with its soulful melodies and poignant lyricism, cemented SZA as an R&B star. SZA dominated 2017 and her raw honesty and message of emotional resilience saved us from crippling depression in a Trump-dominated world. No one is more deserving of the prize.
Dark Horse: Lil Uzi Vert
Lil Uzi Vert debut studio album Luv Is Rage 2, the follow-up his wildly popular mixtape, is a lowkey masterpiece. But even the success of "XO Tour Llif3" likely can’t compete with SZA’s breakout year and Alessia Cara’s wholesome appeal.
Best Rap Album
Will Win: Jay-Z, 4:44
The Grammys's voting bodies' familiarity with Jay-Z and their tendency to favor storybook career arcs lead me to believe that he'll take home Best Rap Album honors for his compelling work on 4:44. In many ways it's deserved. This is one of Jigga Man's sharpest projects, both lyrically and sonically, as well as his most personal and revealing. He exceeded all expectations, closed several chapters, and opened the door to create new material if he so pleases. For all intents and purposes 4:44 could serve as his swan's song, and I can't see the Grammys missing out on that.
Should Win: Kendrick Lamar, DAMN.
Hov may have this one in the can, but Kendrick had the best rap album of 2017. It captured everything that a great rap album needs to be—and wants to be—in 2017. The lyrics were sturdy, gripping, and often fun. He had wordplay, varying rhyme structures, and some of the best storytelling we've heard on wax in years. Additionally, the beats were unique, with Kendrick employing a range of production landscapes that few others could tackle. And rap tenets aside, he had mainstream smashes that buoyed the double-platinum project since its release. This is his time, and the Grammys should prepare themselves for foul cries if they don't acknowledge this.
Dark Horse: Migos, Culture
Migos' Culture is a really good album. Surely their best. It's just good enough, and big enough to have dominated the mainstream for a decent portion of 2017. I could see this winning with the Grammys making a play for performative relevance.
Best Rap Song
Will Win: Cardi B, "Bodak Yellow"
It’ll be tough to top the sheer cultural force of “Bodak Yellow,” which feels like the undeniable lock in every category it’s nominated in. And you can’t knock Cardi B for it either; 2017 was her year, with “Bodak Yellow” leading the charge. But if we’re going off the credentials laid out for this particular category...
Should Win: Jay-Z, "The Story of O.J."
Jay Z’s “The Story of O.J.” has the merit to score the trophy. The lyricism, narrative, and execution of this song is top-notch. Hov has also won this award three times in the past, so familiarity could be key this time around.
Dark Horse: Kendrick Lamar, "HUMBLE"
It feels weird to call Kendrick’s “Humble” a dark horse pick considering it counts as his first No. 1 single as a lead artist and effectively kick-started the immense success of Damn. This category is stacked, and with K-Dot up for several other awards he’s worthy of, he could lose out here and still have a big night regardless. Or, this award could be the beginning of a historic night
Best Rap Performance
Will Win: Cardi B, "Bodak Yellow"
By openly borrowing the cadence of one of rap's rising figures (Kodak Black) and flipping it to fit her flow, Cardi B popped all the way off. But let's be honest. At first, she was a guilty pleasure—nobody wanted to admit they were bumping "Bodak Yellow" seriously. That's where rap math comes into play: hard lyrics + bold delivery + an undeniably catchy beat = a full-blown fan favorite. Cardi effectively ran the last half of 2017 with just this one song. The funny thing is, it's still inescapable. If she doesn't win, it'll be a legitimate outrage.
Should Win: Cardi B, "Bodak Yellow"
Because, duh.
Dark Horse: LOL
I mean, honestly—does it matter? The other nominations are certified bangers, but they're all runners up to Queen Cardi. Period.
Best Rap/Sung Performance
Will Win: Jay-Z f/ Beyonce, "Family Feud"
It seems likely that music's first family will take the podium for Best Rap/Sung performance for "Family Feud." The world's biggest rapper and the world's biggest singer, combined for one of their better collaborations—even if it was assembled without Bey's knowledge.
Should Win: GoldLink f/ Brent Faiyaz & Shy Glizzy
Without a doubt Goldlink's "Crew" should win. Arriving at the tail end of 2016, this song was reignited several times as it caught placements in playlists, on radio, and on a hit television show in Insecure. All those are feathers in its cap, but the true essence of this song—and the purpose of rap-sung collab—is felt in the club and at kickbacks across the globe. It perfectly unites the fan bases of R&B with Brent Faiyaz's silky melody and hip-hop with energetic verses from both Goldlink and Shy Glizzy.
Dark Horse: 6lack, "PRBLMS"
6lack's "PRBLMS" made a lot of noise, introducing him to the world and earning a Hot 100 placement as well as a platinum plaque in the process. Not bad for a relative newcomer. I wouldn't be surprised if he sneaks past everyone and adds a Grammy to his list of accolades.
Best R&B Song
Will Win: Bruno Mars, "That’s What I Like"
Straight-up, "That's What I Like" is adorable AF. The folks who put this song together (because it was definitely a team) knew exactly how to fit the essence of Bruno Mars into three and a half minutes. It's playful here, seductive there, soulful everywhere. With wholesome, flirtatious lyrics slathered on top of pumped-up production, it's just a lot of fucking fun. It's hard to deny such a good time.
Should Win: SZA, "Supermodel"
While most of her peers were doing just enough to get by on planet Earth, SZA was in the stratosphere composing Ctrl—and "Supermodel" set the scene for the whole album. With the help of handpicked collaborators, SZA put together a song that manages to be both vulnerable and slightly vindictive at the same time. She put the jagged innards of broken relationships on full display, and it connected with girls (and guys) everywhere. Hello, Recording Academy? If you're listening, this is your pick.
Dark Horse: Khalid, "Location"
Khalid's name started popping up everywhere because of this simple, but lovely track. "Location" is basically him saying, "Yo—drop a pin, send a location" to a girl that won't stop dodging him and playing coy. It incorporates language that appeals to The Youth™, so it probably won't win over the more... seasoned Grammys voters. That being said, it's still a great cut. If it somehow manages to win, millennials will rejoice.
Best R&B Performance
Will Win: Bruno Mars, "That’s What I Like"
Bruno Mars can’t be stopped. “That’s What I Like” is proof—a infectious, upbeat ditty that relentlessly snakes into your eardrum; we never stood a chance. The single’s video, which is literally just Mars dancing against a gray backdrop, has over a billion streams. The Grammys will definitely pop it for a player and give Bruno Mars the prize.
Should Win: Daniel Caesar, "Get You"
Have you heard Daniel Caesar sing? Have you wept a little or swayed slowly, alone in your apartment, or let out a tiny, high-pitched squeal when the words “everything I need’s between those thighs” formed softly in his mouth? Yeah, me neither. But he deserves to win for the tender, almost ethereal way he sings “Oooooooh” alone.
Dark Horse: SZA, "The Weekend"
SZA’s surprisingly nonchalant song about sharing a man with two other women is a modern love song and deserves all of the accolades. Still, there’s no way Bruno Mars takes an L here.
Best Urban Contemporary Album
Will Win: Childish Gambino, Awaken, My Love!
Donald Glover’s unexpected approach to his follow-up to Because the Internet paid off, and if you combined that with his Emmy success, growing notoriety in the entertainment industry, and the fact that Awaken, My Love! is the only album in this category that is also up for Album of the Year, and Glover seems like the best bet to walk away with this trophy Sunday night.
Should Win: SZA, Ctrl
If we're going strictly off performance, this award would go to SZA. Ctrl was outright one of the best albums released in 2017, and arguably the best in the R&B space. Glover may have "Redbone," but SZA had "The Weekend"... and "Love Galore"... and "Supermodel"... you get the picture.
Dark Horse: Khalid, American Teen
Khalid's debut album American Teen may not have received a ton of shine outside of "Location" and "Young Dumb & Broke," but you'd be a fool to ignore how much momentum the 19-year-old singer has going into Grammy night. Like SZA, Khalid is up for Best New Artist, and that accolade could help boost his chances here.
Producer of the Year
Who Will Win: Greg Kurstin
Kurstin is a four-time nominee in this category, and won last year. He has a little something for everyone: Beck and Foo Fighters for the rockers; Kendrick Lamar for the rap crowd; and the likes of Zayn, Liam Gallagher, and Halsey for the pop audience. It seems likely that garnering votes from all of those crowds will lead to (another) victory.
Who Should Win: No I.D.
No I.D.'s nom is for 4:44, along with Vic Mensa's album and that one song where Logic quotes "Live at the Barbeque." Dion deserves it for 4:44 alone. The music on that album melds perfectly with the subject matter and, as Jay Z was telling anyone who would listen, the producer was flipping samples in stunningly creative ways.
Dark Horse: Stereotypes
You should never overlook a great pop song, and The Stereotypes have a ton of them in their catalog. There's the Bruno Mars two-fer of "Finesse" and "That's What I Like," along with "Deliver," "Sunshine," and other feel-good numbers. In a year where everything's going to hell, you shouldn't underestimate the power of a good time.