Image via Getty/Theo Wargo
Another year, another Grammy Awards ceremony. From the hip-hop and R&B side of things, this time of year is always a rocky one. When inspecting the history of the coveted prize program, artists who work within genres that don’t fall into conventionally respected territories—classical, rock, Americana, etc.—tend to not be awarded in a way that makes sense. (The Grammys will never be able to live down the fact that they awarded Macklemore over Kendrick Lamar for Best Rap Album in 2014.)
To put it frankly: Do we really trust the Recording Academy to do the right thing? By all accounts, it seems that, especially in the past year, they’ve been trying to change gears. First, they assembled a “diversity and inclusion task force,” to examine “barriers and biases affecting women and other underrepresented voices in the music industry.” Then they trotted out beloved performers like Cardi B and Travis Scott at this year’s show.
That said, the Academy’s concerted efforts might be too little, too late: It was just announced this week that Kendrick Lamar, Drake, and Childish Gambino all turned down opportunities to perform this coming Sunday. But none of that takes away from the fact that winning Grammys still equals success in the music industry. Period.
So, who will the lucky winners be at the Grammys in 2019? Read on to see who we think will win, who we think should win, and who we think could defy all odds and take home the hardware.
Album of the Year
Who Will Win: Janelle Monáe, Dirty Computer
2018 was the year that Janelle Monáe finally convinced the world that she’s a musical and conceptual force to be reckoned with. Or, to put it simply: She proved her genius beyond a shadow of a doubt. Her preoccupation with otherworldly soundscapes and robotic storylines has been on full display since she entered the game officially, in 2007, with her debut EP, Metropolis: Suite I (The Chase). After more than a decade of pushing forth her own mystifying musical narrative, the rest of the industry—critics and colleagues, alike—opened its proverbial beak to accept Dirty Computer, an undeniably nourishing meal that stood out amongst the myriad of unsatisfying snacks that dropped last year. Monáe’s chance to win Album of the Year has been years in the making.
Who Should Win: Kendrick Lamar and Various Artists, Black Panther: The Album
Black Panther, the movie, was a certified cultural event last year. The star-studded superhero film did multiple things the minute it hit theaters: it showed the strength of the Black dollar, via a robust audience turnout; it centered Black actors and actresses, despite being buoyed by coins that had previously not been invested in POC-led projects; and it gave Black people everywhere a chance to stunt, in terms of fashion and self-confidence.
So, when word got out that Kendrick Lamar would be executive producing the film’s soundtrack, it only made sense that the music helmed by Lamar would securely anchor the movie in its place in cinematic history. And that, it did. Sounds of Wakanda were borrowed and peppered unobtrusively into the album, and the theme of the movie—love, family, and good intentions will always win, despite the opps—was reflected through the music in such a way that one couldn’t listen to the soundtrack without getting an urge to watch the movie, and vice versa. Black Panther: The Album contributed to a massive moment in 2018. If the Academy wants to finally make up for all the years non-white musicians have been locked out of the award ceremony’s most-coveted category, this would be an easy winner.
Dark Horse: Cardi B, Invasion of Privacy
While Cardi B’s fans (and detractors) stand by, waiting for her to whip out a sophomore follow-up to her 2018 debut, Cardi is basking in the fact that she has been nominated for five Grammys this year—and four of them are connected to her very own album, Invasion of Privacy. The project was released last April, but Cardi was able to finesse (no pun intended) and extend the album’s relevance throughout the entire year. Through her endlessly hilarious social media presence, polished photos, a whole baby girl with Migos’ Offset, and insane music videos (including one for “Money,” the first single for her aforementioned yet-to-be-announced second album), Cardi has proven that she ain’t no fucking fluke. And she’s here to stay. If Invasion of Privacy wins Album of the Year, it would be an acknowledgment of not just her hard-won talent, but the unprecedented glo-up she’s had in the past 12 months. —Kiana Fitzgerald
Record of the Year
Who Will Win: Childish Gambino, “This Is America”
Like most of our beloved institutions, the Grammys have come under fire in recent years for their lack of awards for people of color and the genres they’ve created, influenced, and shifted. Giving “This Is America” Record of the Year is an easy way for them to look “woke” without actually doing any work, like the people who clap back at Donald Trump on Twitter but don’t keep that same energy with Aunt Tammy on Thanksgiving.
Who Should Win: Cardi B, Bad Bunny, J Balvin, “I Like It”
The award for Record of the Year serves to recognize the artist, producers, recording engineers, mixers, and mastering engineers—essentially, the people responsible for making a song sound like that. No song’s sound was more infectious in 2018 than “I Like It,” which explains its widespread adoration, even from people who can only sing along to the first verse and the chorus. It topped the Billboard charts (a first for Bad Bunny and J Balvin, a second for Cardi) and remained inescapable throughout the summer, despite having been released in early April. The track deserves Record of the Year, not only by the Grammys’ popularity contest standards, but also for the sheer fact that nearly a year later, while the rest of these songs have lost their charm, the star of “I Like It” continues to burn bright.
Dark Horse: Kendrick Lamar, SZA, “All the Stars”
“All the Stars” is a dark horse because, if we’re keeping it a buck, it shouldn’t even be in this category. But, as my colleague Angel Diaz pointed out in a meeting this week, this song is “so bad that the Grammy’s are definitely gonna award it.” There’s a chance they give Record of the Year to “All the Stars” for the folks at home who “don’t really like hip-hop, except for Hamilton.” —Carolyn Bernucca
Song of the Year
Who Will Win: Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, “Shallow”
Song of the Year is a songwriting award, so it usually goes to songs with catchy melodies and consistent, easy-to-grasp concepts—think Adele’s “Hello” or Sam Smith’s “Stay With Me,” two recent winners. Given that, it seems obvious that “Shallow,” a dramatic country-pop duet with lyrics about “this modern world” and needing to “fill that void,” will walk away with the trophy. Being paired with a successful movie doesn’t hurt, either. And the song is expertly written, with contributions from Gaga, Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, and Anthony Rossomando (the last of whom I first encountered as a charismatic, Keith Richards-esque guitarist in Boston mod revivalists The Damn Personals back in the early 2000s).
Who Should Win: Drake, "God's Plan"
As for who actually should win, well, try listening to the first 0:02 of “God’s Plan” without having the entire rest of the track run through your head. The song’s melody is repetitive, sure. But it’s memorable enough that hearing it over and over again for 3 minutes and change only leaves you wanting more. And if we’re going for memorable lyric moments, “I only love my bed and my momma, I’m sorry” outclasses anything that sore loser Bradley Cooper belts out.
Dark Horse: Ella Mai, "Boo'd Up"
If neither of those two make it, Ella Mai’s “Boo’d Up” might pull off a come-from-behind victory. Co-written by Rance Dopson of the phenomenal band 1500 or Nothin’, along with DJ Mustard, Joelle James, and Mai, the song was an absolute phenomenon, with one of the best pop hooks of recent years. Plus, any song that can inspire that many remixes should definitely win something. —Shawn Setaro
Best New Artist
Who Will Win: Dua Lipa
The Grammys have always been late to the party when it comes to crowning “new artists.” Remember Alessia Cara last year? Staying in line with history, Dua Lipa is a clear frontrunner this time around. Sure, she signed with Warner Music Group in 2015 and her debut album came out nearly two years ago, but we don’t imagine that will stop the Grammys: The 23-year-old London singer has a massive audience and all the momentum in the world.
Who Should Win: H.E.R.
H.E.R. is having a breakout moment. After dropping two great self-titled EPs in 2017, her star has been rising to the point that she received five (!!!) Grammy nominations this year. And she has yet to drop her major-label debut with MBK/RCA. The 21-year-old singer is still in the process of revealing her full persona to the world, but all signs point to her becoming a massive breakout star.
Dark Horse: Chloe x Halle
Making a name for themselves on YouTube, sisters Chloe and Halle ended up catching the eye of Beyoncé in 2015, who signed them to her Parkwood Entertainment imprint. Despite the Bey cosign, the sisters are still somewhat of a dark horse pick for Best New Artist, and haven't attracted a massive audience yet. But their 2018 debut album, The Kids Are Alright, was a major step forward. This could be a perfect time for the Grammys to swoop in with a savvy pick. —Eric Skelton
Best Rap Album
Who Will Win: Cardi B, Invasion of Privacy
Cardi is the People’s Champ right now and seems like the sexy pick, so we won’t be surprised at all if the Grammys go with her. She deserves it, too. Cardi’s career trajectory could not have been predicted and her winning a Grammy would make any dream possible while also making certain individuals mad. IOP has some bangers on there with hella tough talk. Maybe the Academy is starting to figure this rap thing out.
Who Should Win: Pusha-T, DAYTONA
I mean, if we’re talking about rap in its purest form, then Pusha’s phenomenal album is the obvious choice. DAYTONA is seven flawless tracks of some of Kanye’s best production in years, with coke rap godbody metaphors that could soundtrack a season of Narcos. The Academy will surprise everyone if they give Push a fucking Grammy. When you think of rap, you should think of albums in the vein of DAYTONA.
Dark Horse: Pusha-T, DAYTONA
See above. —Angel Diaz
Best Rap Song
Who Will Win: Drake, "God's Plan"
“God’s Plan” was No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 for 11 weeks straight last spring. It was only knocked out of the top spot because Drake dropped another song; you might remember it, a little ditty called “Nice for What.” But for that stretch—starting in early February, when the song debuted at No.1, and into late April—“God’s Plan” was everywhere. The accompanying video, which spilled over with emotional visuals of Drake giving away $1 million to those in need in Miami, only boosted the song’s appeal. The lyrics are fairly simple, but durable, reinforced through the sheer inescapability of the video and song itself, which was on every “urban”-associated radio station throughout 2018. Drake had a fucking banger of a year (Pusha-T’s machinations aside), and this song started it all off. The Academy has never had an easier choice to make.
Who Should Win: Travis Scott f/ Drake, "Sicko Mode"
While Drake dominated the first half of 2018, led off by “God’s Plan,” Travis Scott controlled the latter half of the year, easily. In early August, he released his long-awaited ASTROWORLD album, which contained “Sicko Mode,” featuring Drake, Swae Lee, and the late Big Hawk (a Houston legend). While the lyrics of “Sicko Mode” aren’t revolutionary, they are nothing if not incredibly memorable. If you don’t believe me, you clearly didn’t go to a single party for the last five months of 2018, including on New Year’s Eve, when the song was played so many times you would have thought it was going out of style. “Sicko Mode” is our choice, and the people’s choice.
Dark Horse: Jay Rock, Kendrick Lamar, Future & James Blake, "King's Dead"
[Clears throat]. “LA-DI-DA-DI-DA: SHLOB ON ME KNOB.” —Kiana Fitzgerald
Best Rap Performance
Who Will Win: Drake, "Nice For What"
Despite the child-hiding energy and that resurfaced video of him groping a 17-year-old onstage, 2018 was a huge year for Drake, and “Nice For What” marked its peak. A top-to-bottom, inarguable smash hit (and rightfully so), our Best Song of 2018 runner-up is a safe bet for the Grammys.
Who Should Win: Travis Scott f/ Drake, "Sicko Mode"
Do I really have to say it? In a mere 312 seconds, with three parts, two beat switches, two Jamba Juice references, and one iconic producer tag, Travis Scott and Drake defined rap in 2018. We’re talking about performance here, and the theatrics of “Sicko Mode” certainly qualify it as a—nay, the—performance. But the Grammys ain’t ready to have that conversation.
Dark Horse: Cardi B, "Be Careful"
The Recording Academy could give this one to Cardi in order to receive some kudos themselves; a woman has not won the award since Missy Elliott in 2004, when it was split into “male” and “female” categories—big yikes! This definitely wouldn’t be our pick for a Cardi win, but she does say the word “putas” in this song, so that’s something. —Carolyn Bernucca
Best Rap/Sung Performance
Who Will Win: Post Malone f/ 21 Savage, "Rockstar"
This award will go to "Rockstar" because this is the Grammys and it's a Post Malone's song. Do you honestly need me to spell it out any further?
Who Should Win: Kendrick Lamar and SZA, "All the Stars"
“All the Stars” was released as the lead single of the Black Panther soundtrack. It features Kendrick Lamar, arguably the biggest and most respected rapper in the world, alongside TDE’s breakout star, SZA. K. Dot and SZA are at their charismatic peak in “All the Stars,” and it gave them everything they needed to truly cross over into not just the musical mainstream, but pop culture at large. That alone should be enough to reward Top Dawg Entertainment’s artists with a much-deserved collab award.
Dark Horse: 6lack f/ J. Cole, "Pretty Little Fears"
Overall, this category is a little tricky. In addition to gimme nominations like Post Malone and 21 and Kendrick and SZA, it also features newcomers like 6lack and Goldlink paired with OGs like J. Cole and Christina Aguilera. As far as a contemporary rap/sung collab that connects with its intended audience—one that doesn’t lean on glossy pop stars from yesteryear trying to reclaim their relevance—it doesn’t get any more pure than 6lack and J. Cole’s “Pretty Little Fears.” —Kiana Fitzgerald
Best R&B Song
Who Will Win: Ella Mai, "Boo’d Up"
A wholesome earworm by a newcomer from across the pond, that didn’t sound like everything else on Spotify’s Are & Be (what?) playlist? The Grammys will definitely ensure that the statue makes it into the deserving hands of Ella Mai...right? Right?!
Who Should Win: Ella Mai, "Boo’d Up"
This is such an easy one for the Grammys to not fuck up that if they do, we might have to throw the whole Recording Academy away. No disrespect to any of the other nominees, but let’s not kid ourselves; “Boo’d Up” is the one—just ask the teens at the birthday party I walked by last weekend (who were singing along to it loud enough for all of Brooklyn to hear).
Dark Horse: Toni Braxton, "Long As I Live"
Still, the Grammys do love a vet. Nominating a seasoned artist means they don’t have to think too hard about the category in question, and Toni is a legend, after all. —Carolyn Bernucca
Best R&B Performance
Who Will Win: H.E.R. f/ Daniel Caesar, “Best Part”
We might be overthinking this one in the Complex office, but hear us out. This award will likely go to “Best Part,” for one of two reasons: 1) This song is fucking perfect; 2) The nomination bills H.E.R. first in the collaboration. This song technically first appeared on Daniel Caesar’s Freudian album, released in August 2017. Now, maybe arrangements were made for this song to become shared equally amongst the two—at this point, it has become a calling card for both singers. But even if that was the case, why not nominate it via Daniel’s name first? Things that make you think. Things that make you speculate.
Who Should Win: The Carters, “Summer”
“Summer” is the intro track of the Carters’ June 2018 album Everything Is Love, and it set the scene in an almost uncomfortable way. Beyoncé opens the song by singing seductively AF and ultimately spilling the beans about the intimate moments she and JAY-Z have shared—or moments they’re planning to share. Either way, it came across as low-key TMI, with lyrics like: “I want you to come inside right now/So you know just how I feel.” This song alone spelled out the kind of journey listeners would be embarking on across the Carters’ first joint project. Collar-tugging lyrics aside, it’s a beautifully constructed song that JAY took a step back on, in order to allow his wife to take the lead.
Dark Horse: Toni Braxton, “Long As I Live”
Toni Braxton is an R&B OG who has been making love songs for more than 25 years; her self-titled debut album dropped in 1993. If you’re a math wiz like myself, you might have already calculated that that’s two years longer than Daniel Caesar, 23, has been alive, and four years longer than H.E.R., 21, has been alive. Toni is a certified and undeniable influence on these kids. Not only that, Bey dressed up like Toni’s debut album cover for Halloween last year, effectively bending the knee to show her reverence for the singer. It’s not far-fetched to say that it would behoove the Recording Academy to pay respect where it’s due, and salute Toni. —Kiana Fitzgerald
Best R&B Album
Who Will Win: Lalah Hathaway, Honestly
R&B veterans attempting to stay current walk a very dangerous line. They can either succeed in bringing in new energy (and, one hopes, new listeners); or they can come off as desperate, a soul-singing version of that Steve Buscemi “How do you do, fellow kids?” meme. Lalah Hathaway, in teaming up with Tiffany Gouché, very much succeeded on Honestly. She kept her gorgeous, second-generation-soul-royalty voice, but added some modern production and lyrical touches to keep things vital. It seems inevitable that she’ll be rewarded for successfully walking that tricky tightrope.
Who Should Win: Leon Bridges, Good Thing
If we really want to talk a successful mix of retro and modern, Leon Bridges is the one to beat. Good Thing has the melodies, musicianship, and feel of classic R&B, with just a touch of bright, modern, neo-disco shinyness. Tracks like “Mrs.” feel instantly familiar without coming off as dated, which may be the trickiest thing of all to pull off.
Dark Horse: Toni Braxton, Sex & Cigarettes
On the other hand, Toni Braxton, the former future Mrs. Birdman, feels no need to give in to any trends on Sex & Cigarettes. She just does what she does better than anybody—sing one heart-rending ballad after another. If that gets rewarded, that’s just fine with us. —Shawn Setaro
Best Urban Contemporary Album
Who Will Win: The Carters, Everything Is Love
It’s bizarre that Everything Is Love wasn’t nominated for more. Maybe that’s the result of Grammy voters saying, “OK, bet, after hearing Jay-Z rightfully tell them, “Fuck that 0 for 8 shit,” on this very album. Or maybe it’s the consequence of voters not quite knowing what to do with a project from The Carters that they don’t promote through the stratosphere (especially Beyoncé). Their tour dominated the summer, sure, but the album, which was released not even at the beginning but rather a random date, was barely incorporated into the setlist. And you’d think only filming one music video—but doing so inside the freaking Louvre—would be enough to stack up against their tendency to build visuals out of an entire project (sometimes amounting to a movie) but apparently not. With all that said, even when the Grammys fronted on Lemonade, they at least gave Bey this statue, which seems paltry in the face of higher snubs sure, but it would be viewed as downright disrespectful if they didn’t at least honor her here.
Who Should Win: The Carters, Everything Is Love
It’s bizarre that Everything Is Love wasn’t nominated, but it’s also a travesty! This album is great! At nine tracks it’s a breezy listen, not overstaying its welcome but also not feeling 15 minutes short of making a complete statement like most of Kanye’s seven-track experiments. I feel like people are so used to the spectacle and overwhelming conquerdom of these two that, in the aftermath of them delivering a very solid collab album, most have already forgotten that even their respective fans didn’t think it could be done. It’s not schmaltzy pop with tacked-on Jay verses; it’s not a project where Bey feels minimalized (in fact, she very clearly dominates it); it’s not even a tortured dramaticized retread of the stuff they covered across Lemonade and 4:44. It's just a collection of very good songs about black love, black pride, and black exceptionalism. It's a sneaky WTT-sequel in the way that it features two entertainers reconciling with a life and status no one but them could understand. Is it as great as their best work apart is? Of course not, but Jay is rapping his ass off, and Bey is on a Yonce flex-level only seen in spurts on her albums. If the Grammys give this to her protégé-duo or a merely decent Miguel album instead, she should never go to another ceremony again, to be honest.
Dark Horse: Meshell Ndegeocello, Ventriloquism
I’m not even up on Meshell like that, but Grammy voters aren’t always the servants of mainstream opinion that a lot of cynical predictors and watchers cast them as. Remember Beck? Herbie Hancock? Esperanza Spalding! Meshell has been nominated 10 times, so clearly the Academy rocks with her and if they’re of the mind the album is that fire, this time might be the charm. We’d have no choice but to flock to the nearest streaming service and see what we’re missing out on. —Frazier Tharpe
Producer of the Year
Who Will Win: Pharrell Williams
Pharrell gets love at the Grammys so much so that despite his excellent album GIRL being grossly underrated, it still managed to beat Beyonce’s self-titled for Best Urban Contemporary Album. With 2018 credits like the thunderous “Apeshit,” ubiquitous “Lemon,” (although N.E.R.D.’s entire album is nominated), and his work with capital-A A-listers Justin Timberlake and Ariana Grande, the portrait of a sturdy and consistent year is painted. Who, among the industry and fans alike, doesn’t love Pharrell? He represents the rare time when a safe pick would still be the deserving one. Meanwhile, though, two of Boi-1da’s ’18 hits are nominated elsewhere: “God’s Plan” and “Lucky You.” Pharrell’s legacy gives him the edge.
Who Should Win: Kanye West
He’s problematic, and he has disappointed a lot us quite often in the past year, sure. But he did not disappoint when it came to his job: five albums, five weeks, all with production that wasn’t just excellent, but varied in style and technique. “If You Know, You Know,” “Never Would’ve Made It,” “4th Dimension” “Ghost Town,” and “White Label.” None sound alike, and each deserves a slot on the Kanye production highlight reel. The only person who had a truly more impressive year than Kanye is Tay Keith, who isn’t nominated here because, Grammys.
Dark Horse: Boi-1da
Boi-1da doesn’t have the legacy edge of Kanye or Pharrell, but not by as much of a deficit as you might think. Recall, he’s been racking up nominations since 2010 with Drake’s “Best I Ever Had.” He’s a superproducer in his own right these days, and the fact that his 2018 hits are nominated elsewhere, is a detail that shouldn’t be overlooked. —Frazier Tharpe
Best Music Video
Who Will Win: Childish Gambino, “This Is America”
The release of “This Is America” was a moment. On the same night that Donald Glover pulled double duty as host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live, he dropped a music video that stopped the world in its tracks—a rare feat in 2018. In the weeks that followed, fans at home ran the clip back, over and over, as they studied the video’s symbolism. In turn, the clip racked up hundreds of millions of plays on YouTube. If the Grammys are looking to reward a video that made the largest cultural impact, with artistic integrity intact, “This Is America” is a no-brainer.
Who Should Win: Tierra Whack, “Mumbo Jumbo”
When I first saw the beautifully strange music video for “Mumbo Jumbo,” Grammy nominations didn’t seem likely for Tierra Whack. The visual represented an exciting step forward for a promising young artist, but she was still an unknown to most of us. Still, for anyone who saw the visual at the time, it was clear this was the best video of the year. “I like creepy shit,” she told me at the time. "Shit that’s gonna make you ask why and look at what everyone is doing, asking why?" Exactly.
Dark Horse: Tierra Whack, “Mumbo Jumbo”
Ditto. —Eric Skelton