Image via Getty/Samir Hussein
Drake is getting ready to drop his sixth studio album, Certified Lover Boy. It’s already been delayed a couple of times, but whenever it finally arrives, it will help set the tone for the next decade of his career. By most metrics, he ruled the 2010s on a commercial level, putting up record-breaking sales and streaming numbers. He also won over many critics who praised his versatility. In the 2020s, though, there’s a clean slate and new questions. In a new decade, how long will he be able to keep up this dominant run?
There has been some chatter lately from media personalities like Charlamagne, who argued that the “Drake era” is over. There have also been whispers about whether he’s “falling off” after somewhat lackluster critical receptions to projects like Scorpion and More Life. So, what direction is Drake’s career really heading before the release of Certified Lover Boy? What (if anything) does he have to prove on this album? What would define a successful album, and what would be a flop? What will happen when the album finally comes? As we wait for CLB to arrive, members of the Complex Music team answered these questions and made some predictions.
How was Drake’s year in 2020?
Eric: I’ve heard people talk about Drake having a disappointing year in 2020, but they must have already forgotten about the pandemic that derailed everyone’s plans in the entertainment industry. Drake had to push his album back, which means he didn’t have the kind of year some had hoped for, but I think he actually adapted to 2020 better than most rappers. Putting the album on hold, he still figured out a way to stay part of the conversation by releasing a mixtape of “leaks and new vibes” that included No. 1 hits (“Toosie Slide”) and deep cuts that gave him room to experiment with new sounds (“From Florida With Love”). He also linked up with Future for one of the biggest songs of the year (“Life Is Good”), gifted DJ Khaled with a couple hit singles (“Popstar” and “Greece”), and delivered a standout guest verse on Headie One’s “Only You Freestyle.” And that’s without even mentioning the Lil Durk-assisted single, “Laugh Now Cry Later.” That’s an impressive year for someone who had to scrap their plans and come up with a new strategy on the fly. On paper, it was nowhere near his best year. But considering the context of 2020, it proved he’s more resilient than most of his peers, and he’ll always figure out ways to keep the Drake machine moving (even in a pandemic).
Andre: It felt like Drake took 2020 off, even with Dark Lane Demo Tapes. The project had some strong tracks, but the way he treated it made it seem like an appetizer leading up to an album that never came. It felt easy to overlook, if that makes sense. I think he’s been intent on building up a mythos and he has a lot of pressure to live up to, with fans who expect “top 2 and not 2.” I’m not sure if the music over the past two or three years has reflected that, so 2021 is a bit of a crossroads for Drake. It’s fitting that it’s happening at the beginning of the decade, because it just may set the tone for where he goes from here.
Jessica: His pre-album releases haven’t been bad, but they also haven’t had quite the level of impact and critical reception that we’ve come to expect from Drake records. Despite some of the harsher reviews, though, I enjoyed “Laugh Now Cry Later.” It was a fun and triumphant record that was certainly built for radio and had a strong music video. It sounds a little safer than some of his releases from a few years ago, and it’s not up to par with meteoric hits like “Hotline Bling” and “Started from the Bottom,” but it still stands out. I have noticed a quieter reaction from fans, though. Compared to “God’s Plan,” the lead single on 2018’s Scorpion, the conversation around records like “Laugh Now Cry Later” has not been as inescapable, even with a star-studded music video and Lil Durk’s mention of 6ix9ine. Even Dark Lane Demo Tapes and the DJ Khaled songs “Popstar” and “Greece” didn’t land as expected. “Toosie Slide” found viral success, thanks to TikTok, but the obvious ploy to create a viral challenge received some pushback, even for an artist like Drake who has been known to use strategies like that in the past. Drake’s career right now isn’t exactly on a decline, but it does bring up questions about whether he is coming to a roadblock.
Waiss: It’s kind of funny that we’re doing a temperature check on Drake after he was the most-streamed artist of 2020. I understand he’s had a sustained period of success, so anything that doesn’t meet expectations is eligible for criticism, but music in 2020 has to be discerned through the lens of the pandemic. The lack of tours, promotional runs, LIV pop-up sets, and being able to hear music outside plays a big role in how we feel about who’s hot. I’m not saying “Laugh Now Cry Later” is on par with the impact of “God’s Plan” or “One Dance.” I’m just saying it never really had the same chance as those other songs. In a year where the clubs are closed, the rooftops are empty, and all we have left are metrics, I’ll let the numbers show for themselves how successful Drake’s 2020 was: 5.6 billion streams, one #1 song (“Toosie Slide”), one 8x platinum feature (“Life is Good”), 7 Top 40 hits, and more accolades I can’t fit in here. So yes, Drake had a good year and his career is going really well.
What about the "Drake's era is over" talk? Is he "falling off"?
Eric: An era isn’t over until a successor has taken over. Even if you believe Drake isn’t at the height of his powers right now, that doesn’t mean his era is over yet. Someone needs to take it from him, and as Carl Chery so eloquently put it on this website a few months ago, there is no clear heir to Drake’s throne yet. Newcomers like Lil Baby and Roddy Ricch have thrown their hats in the ring as contenders, but they’re not there yet. And even though he might sell more candles and game consoles than Drake does, Travis Scott hasn’t overtaken him musically. Kendrick could strike at any moment and shift the conversation, but for now, he’s been too quiet to overtake Drake. So, for the time being, all this talk about Drake falling off and his era ending is overblown. Compared to his highs in the mid 2010s, Drake’s past couple years haven’t been as dominant, but he’s managed to weather everything from a Pusha-T-sized storm to the near-shutdown of the entertainment industry. It’s still Drake’s era.
Andre: When I hear “Drake era,” I think of the point where, valid or not, a wide stretch of rap fans felt like he dictated the sound of popular rap. The feeling was that a lot of artists borrowed his melodic choruses and subcutaneous soundscapes in the 2010s (though some could attribute that sound primarily to 808s & Heartbreak). But I think that perception is fading after the mixed feelings toward Scorpion and his other recent work. “Falling off” is a loaded term, but I think he’s definitely been treading water. Perhaps he’s a victim of his own versatility. He explores so many sounds that it’s impossible to please everyone at this point, but it’s also tempting to try making everyone happy with a hodgepodge of records that amount to an album that's far from cohesive. At that point, fans will wonder if you can still provide a focused body of work.
Jessica: It depends on how you measure success. He would still achieve commercial success if he were to release a project today, so he’s not falling off in that sense. And a Drake feature still holds a lot of weight in rap right now. But this period doesn’t feel the same as his early run in the mid 2010s. During that era of Drake in his prime, fans were intrigued by what he had to say, and what things he was going to incorporate into his music. Drake still tries new things from time to time, like trying out different accents and production styles, but I don’t know if anyone is looking to him for a new sound or to say something new. Drake’s time isn’t up yet, but it does seem to be slowing down.
Waiss: Drake’s era is by no means over and it’s laughable to consider that he’s “falling off.” Did his releases in 2020 have the same kind of impact and domination over music as they did back in 2015-2018? No. “But you just said he was the most-streamed artist of the year.” Yeah, I know what I said. A lot of that has to do with Drake having one of the most impressive and most popular catalogs in music history. Streaming behemoths like Post Malone, Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, or (to a lesser extent) Travis Scott don’t need to drop an album every year to put up gaudy streaming numbers. People are running back their old stuff. 2020 was a year when everything shut down. People worked from home, couldn’t move around, and just slowed down. Drake is no different. The numbers he put up while doing so are still incredible.
What does Drake have to prove on 'Certified Lover Boy'?
Eric: Drake has already proven everything he needs to prove as an artist, but heading into CLB, I’m sure he wants to release an album that goes down as an indisputable classic. During his interview with Rap Radar in Dec. 2019, Drake listed So Far Gone and Take Care as his classic albums, but it’s likely he’s still annoyed by the ongoing debates about whether he has classics in his catalog. He’s already achieved nearly every goal a rapper could ever hope to accomplish, so at this point, it’s just about adding to his stacked resume. After albums like Scorpion and Views got mixed reviews, I could see him setting out to prove critics wrong by putting together a more concise and focused project with the hopes of delivering a consensus “classic” pick.
Andre: I think he’s fortunate enough to exist at a point in rap history where he, Kendrick, and J. Cole are still young and can push their catalogs and accolades into a stratosphere that few others could rival, in terms of sustained excellence. They’re all already considered OGs, and they’re only in their early-to-mid 30s. Imagine if they stayed active for the next 10 years? They shouldn’t be expected to, but it would be incredible if they had that stamina. CLB would be a nice kickoff to a second decade of success. That would take growth, though. So many people love Jay-Z because they feel like they’ve grown along with him. They identify with how life experience teaches you new things. In Drake’s case, it seems like he’s devolved in some ways, though, and it feels like he was more thoughtful earlier in his career. That’s not to say Drake needs to start a family or anything, but when you accrue fans who identify with your aspirations and college-aged relationship drama, it feels stagnant for you to still be rapping about drunk dialing and situationships when they’re in the next chapter of life. There’s space for certain artists to re-explore the same themes (his rival Push mastered this), but when you’re such a deeply introspective artist, it becomes weird to not hear you have any actual breakthroughs besides how shady the industry is.
Jessica: Frankly, Drake doesn’t have to prove anything to anyone. His die-hard fans are still going to love him, and his detractors will give you every reason for why he is corny. Most people’s minds are made up, and Certified Lover Boy probably won’t sway them. Drake has put in the work over the last 10 years, releasing hits that have soundtracked many peoples’ college experiences and summers. Having already made a mark in rap, does he really have to prove himself? Obviously there will be certain expectations of what this new chapter will say about Drake’s career and legacy. But he shouldn’t feel pressured to consider outsider opinions about what he needs to prove.
Waiss: I’m tempted to say “nothing” and move on, but I’ll expand. “Have to prove” implies Drake owes us something or there’s something we’re waiting for that we haven’t seen yet. To have the critical and commercial success he’s had, I don’t think there’s anything he really needs to show us. Does he want to drop a critically-acclaimed, consensus classic album? Of course. Would massive streaming tallies and big first-week sales be great for him? Sure. But this man has proven all that he needs to prove. Drake haters will hear the album, go to bed, wake up, and still be Drake haters. If you’re not a fan now, or at the very least respect and enjoy some of his music, you’re not suddenly going to flip the switch now.
What will make for a successful album?
Eric: Drake is a streaming monster, so anything he puts out will perform well and be considered a commercial success. When it comes to a critical and legacy perspective, though, I think he’ll see more success if he moves away from his strategy of giving something for everyone. During his Rap Radar interview, Drake explained that he’s one of the only rappers who has to satisfy two totally different audiences at once. “I have to do two things every album,” he said. “I have to give the people that like to hear the singing enough to hold on to, and I have to give LeBron enough bars.” Because of this, he’s been putting out long projects with at least 20 songs on them in recent years (Scorpion, More Life, and Views). In some ways, this “something for everyone” approach has backfired, and I would love to see him drop a shorter album that focuses on doing one thing very well. During a recent episode of Kevin Durant’s podcast, Drake’s producer Noah “40” Shebib said he often encourages the rapper to make a 10-song album. “It’s tough, because he’s trying to deliver for a lot of different people,” he pointed out, explaining that longer albums allow Drake to please all of his different types of fans. “He makes two different kinds of R&B and two different kinds of rap.” A solution to this might be focusing his next album on just one of his styles, then following it up with the opposite. In 2021, what if Drake drops a 10-song rap album, then follows it up with a 10-song R&B album a month or two later?
Andre: He’s always going to have the sales; that shouldn’t be the metric for success. I think a successful album would be one that critics and most fans feel is focused and reflects personal growth. I think he’d be best served not trying to please everyone. The title strongly suggests he’s going in one direction, so it would be cool to hear him talk about romance from a mature space. Even if you’re not rapping about a serious relationship, there are ways for him to express growth and reflection in how he perceives women and romance. If he’s able to talk about romance sounding 34 instead of 24, it will probably be a strong album.
Jessica: To me, a successful album would be one that provides a handful of upbeat summer hits like “Controlla” and “Nice For What.” Drake has a knack for creating “outdoor hits,” and for many, the hope is that summer 2021 is the second round of summer 2016 (especially if the country opens up after COVID). It would be in Drake’s best interest to hold the gimmicks, or at least minimize them. We don’t need a lot of TikTok records or new accents. The album title Certified Lover Boy seems to comment on his reputation for making “emotional” music that appeals to female audiences. But it might serve him better to create music that shows his maturity in real-life situations. Talking about his relationship with his son or discussing romantic relationships, beyond just longing for a woman who has moved on, would make for a successful album in my eyes.
Waiss: Something concise. Something that doesn’t have a bunch of filler songs that no one really listens to anymore (if you say you’re still listening to “Peak,” you’re lying). I think Drake has done a really great job at experimenting outside of studio albums in the last couple years. He’s out here rapping in Arabic on a Headie One track. He’s throwing in some French on the “Greece'' chorus. Even his Dark Lane Demo Tapes is an example of him heat checking what works and what doesn't; what people want to hear and what they don’t. If Drake can give us his best fifteen, right before summer, then that’s a win.
What would be a "flop"?
Eric: If he drops a bloated and unfocused album that gets a lukewarm response from fans, the whispers about Drake “falling off” and his “era ending” will grow louder. It’s clear that legacy-building is on his mind, so a flop at this point in his career would be a forgettable album that doesn’t build his case to be remembered as the greatest of all time.
Andre: I can’t see him ever doing numbers far below his usual output (which are generally record-breaking) so it’s not about sales. A flop would be him continuing to tread water with records that feel like he’s chasing TikTok numbers and pandering to the Rap Caviar youth instead of bringing them to his world. I think he should look to his closest peers; J. Cole and Kendrick seem more mature than him at the moment.
Jessica: CLB will most likely hit No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart and have at least one or two big hits. But speaking in terms of its critical acclaim, the album might not land well if he leans into gimmicks or regurgitates the same exhausted beliefs on relationships. Some people have grown tired of hearing Drake talk about the women who left him or trying to save a new lover he’s pursuing. He shared some relatable thoughts about relationships during his two-hour interview with Rap Radar in 2019. We know he has it in him, so it would be interesting to hear some of that evolution in his music. Another factor is the album’s length. The last two projects have been over 20 songs long. In the past, he has mentioned his desire to appease the fans that come for pure rap bars and the others who come for the softer singing records, but it would help to trim the fat and only include what’s necessary.
Waiss: Let me get ahead of something important here. Drake’s not selling a million first-week like he did with Views. Shifts in consumption coupled with Billboard’s stricter bundle rules are resulting in lower first-week totals for most of music’s biggest stars. To be fair, Drake’s never been much of a bundle guy who wants to finagle a charting system that’s trying to catch up with the industry. But look at megastar Ariana Grande’s Positions: it tallied up 174,000 first-week sales. Taylor Swift’s Evermore moving 329,000 first-week units is a sharp decline from Folklore’s 846K first-week numbers, which seems to be the result of the new bundling rules. I’m saying all this because some people’s expectations haven’t calibrated with the shift that’s happened over the last sixteen months. That said, there’s almost zero chance that Certified Lover Boy “flops” in terms of album sales. I think where the disappointment will be is if the album doesn’t produce a couple of big singles like its predecessors have.
What's your prediction?
Eric: Without hearing any of the actual music yet, I think the circumstances are actually set up for Drake to release his best album in years. He’s had two and a half years to make it, which is long by his standards, and nearly a year of that time came during a pandemic where he didn’t face the usual distractions of touring. He’s had all this time to sit inside the state-of-the-art home studio in his lavish new mansion and put all his attention into music. He’s a new father, growing into a new phase of his life, and on paper anyway, there appears to be a mix of external factors that could lead to a strong album. By pushing his album back, he was also able to release a mixtape full of loosies and new ideas, which allowed him to effectively A/B test the direction of the album. He saw what fans liked, and he saw what they didn’t. Now he has an even better idea of what will translate well on the actual album. If he can capitalize on these things, Drake will have an album that quiets the “falling off” whispers.
Andre: My gut says he releases another album that sells well but tries to please too many people. It’ll have some highlights, but ultimately sound like a revisit of his best moments in this or that lane.
Jessica: If I had to take a guess, I’d predict that Certified Lover Boy won’t be the project fans want it to be. It will certainly be decent with a few big hits, but it won’t say anything new. Drake may not have anything to prove, but to continue his era for another 10 years, he has to turn it up a notch and come with something refreshing.
Waiss: I think the album’s going to be very good. Not to keep throwing around the same buzzwords you hear all the time, but I think cohesion and conciseness are going to be on Drake’s mind as he finishes Certified Lover Boy. At the 2019 BBMAs, he said he’d always dreamed of doing a double album, but it’s something he’s “never doing again.” He also told TSN announcers during a Raptors game that Scorpion was “high volume” and that his next album is going to have a “more realistic” amount of tracks. In his 2019 Rap Radar interview, he called Nothing Was The Same his favorite album because “it was my most concise album...within that concise offering was a lot of great shit.” The more Drake drops tapes and loosies, the more hopeful I get for Certified Lover Boy. Trim the fat. Focus in on the best. Drop a classic.